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International Business Machines

NYSE: IBM · USD

International Business Machines (IBM) Economic Moat Analysis—

Avantages concurrentiels, preuves datées et risques d’érosion.

Analyse à actualiser

Narrow avantage concurrentiel

IBM has a limited, evidenced switching-cost advantage from IBM Z software incumbency and long-term enterprise license commitments that expand adoption across its software portfolio. Recurring software demand and substantive contractual commitments support this assessment, but do not establish exceptional durability or quantify migration costs. Pricing power remains unproven: realized pricing is undisclosed, and margin performance is mixed. Competitive innovation, customer spending shifts and acquisition-dependent growth constrain the moat.

Switching costs

IBM Z incumbency and associated enterprise license agreements support continuing software relationships and broader product adoption. The advantage rests on existing enterprise commitments and portfolio integration; the passages do not quantify technical migration costs. Recurring software growth corroborates continuing demand.

Durabilité
Long-term enterprise license commitments and a substantial recurring software base support a narrow advantage. Company-wide remaining performance obligations also demonstrate multiyear commitments, although their full amount cannot be attributed to IBM Z or switching costs. Durability beyond existing commitments depends on continued customer value and innovation.
Concurrents
Comparaison non établie
Risques d’érosion
Customers deferred large transactions in the second quarter, and Transaction Processing revenue declined. ARR growth includes acquisitions and does not guarantee future recognized revenue. Contract terminations and scope changes can reduce committed work. Cloud competitors and evolving delivery models can weaken incumbency; disclosed risk factors describe possible erosion rather than demonstrated displacement.
Ce qui invaliderait la thèse
The thesis would weaken materially if recurring software revenue contracted persistently excluding acquisitions and currency, enterprise license renewals or product adoption declined, or customers demonstrably replaced IBM Z software without substantive contractual or operational friction. Persistent Transaction Processing declines accompanied by customer departures would be stronger invalidation evidence than a single quarter of delayed deals.
Preuves (7) · Contre-preuves (6)

Évolution depuis la dernière analyse

  • Changed the previous uncertain verdict to narrow because the supplied catalog explicitly links IBM Z incumbency to enterprise license agreements and long-term client commitments, alongside demonstrated recurring software demand and contractual commitment disclosures. The advantage remains limited; migration costs and competitive displacement rates are not established.
  • Pricing power remains unproven, but margin resilience and contractual constraints can be assessed separately from missing realized-price data.
  • Added management assessments using actual compensation arrangements, committee independence, operating results, acquisition spending and financing disclosures. The proposed 2026 performance plan is not treated as adopted.

Limites de l’analyse

  • All evidence comes from issuer filings. Reported results and contractual disclosures support numerical assessments, while management descriptions of strategic value and differentiation receive less weight.
  • Source dates retain dateKind filed: filing-1 February 24, 2026; filing-2 July 23, 2026; filing-3 March 10, 2026; filing-6 April 23, 2026. They are filing dates, not retrieval dates.
  • The software switching-cost advantage has no specifically named direct competitors in the supplied passages, so its competitor array is empty. Consulting identifies Accenture and Capgemini; Infrastructure identifies Dell Technologies, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE), Intel, NetApp and Pure Storage. Their relative performance is not established.
  • Partner listings and statements that partners may also compete do not establish which listed partners directly compete against the identified software advantage.
  • No realized price changes, discount trends, renewal rates, customer migration costs or unilateral repricing rights are supplied. Expected infrastructure price increases are not demonstrated IBM price realization.
  • RPO covers multiple businesses and includes estimates; ARR annualizes current recurring revenue and includes acquisitions. Neither measure is a renewal rate or a guarantee of future revenue.
  • Brand, expertise, intellectual property, AI and quantum provide possible additional advantages, but the passages do not establish durable competitive superiority, network effects, efficient scale or a demonstrated relative cost advantage.
  • Actual executive ownership balances and compliance with ownership requirements are absent. The March 2026 proxy proposes a new performance plan; no supplied voting outcome establishes its adoption.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse

Ratios calculés à partir des publications annuelles. Une valeur manquante reste indisponible. Les graphiques détaillés sont accessibles dans les autres onglets.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse
PériodeGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
202154.9%——18.7%
202254.0%——15.0%
202355.4%——20.5%
202456.7%——19.8%
202558.2%——17.9%

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Management—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Sources et méthode

Analyse à actualiser · Mis à jour 19/10/2026 · Version 5

Interprétation IA fondée sur des extraits vérifiés. Les déclarations de l’entreprise et les limites de couverture restent explicites.

Méthode quality-scores-2 : six catégories de même poids. Le score global exige une couverture complète. Les données manquantes ne valent pas zéro. Les évaluations qualitatives sont des interprétations sourcées, pas des probabilités. 3/6 · 22/10/2026

Moat—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Prévisibilité100

Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
100.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
2.51
Positive FCF years (%)
100.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
1.90

Solidité financière28

Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

debtFcfGrade
34.39
netDebtEbitGrade
11.77
interestCoverageGrade
48.52
currentRatioGrade
16.45
Debt / FCF (x)
5.59
Net debt / operating income (x)
4.41
Current ratio (x)
0.96

Allocation du capital83

Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year pre-tax operating return (%)
13.35
3-year average dilution (%)
1.08
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
2.15
cashConversionGrade
100.00

Qualité du management—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Preuves

Our recurring revenue base, which is approximately 80 percent of Software revenue, delivered healthy growth, reflecting demand for our offerings.

MD&A / Software / recurring revenue base · Dépôt 23/07/2026

The remaining 20 percent of Software revenue is transactional in nature, and is predominantly related to the incumbency with IBM Z and the associated enterprise license agreements (ELAs) with Transaction Processing and other software products in Data and Automation.

MD&A / Software / IBM Z incumbency and enterprise license agreements · Dépôt 23/07/2026

ELAs are highly valuable to IBM because they establish long-term, strategic client commitments that expand adoption across our software products, creating a multiplier effect.

MD&A / Software / management explanation of enterprise license commitments · Dépôt 23/07/2026

It is intended to be a statement of overall work under contract that has not yet been performed and does not include contracts in which the customer is not committed, such as certain as-a-service, governmental, term software license and services offerings.

Notes / remaining performance obligations / committed-contract scope · Dépôt 23/07/2026

The customer is not considered committed when they are able to terminate for convenience without payment of a substantive penalty.

Notes / remaining performance obligations / substantive termination penalties · Dépôt 23/07/2026

At June 30, 2026, the aggregate amount of the transaction price allocated to RPO related to customer contracts that are unsatisfied or partially unsatisfied was approximately $68 billion.

Notes / remaining performance obligations / June 30, 2026 balance · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Approximately 69 percent of the amount is expected to be recognized as revenue in the subsequent two years, approximately 28 percent in the subsequent three to five years and the balance thereafter.

Notes / remaining performance obligations / expected recognition periods · Dépôt 23/07/2026

In the final weeks of June, we saw a shift in client spending priorities that resulted in numerous large deals failing to close within the expected timelines, driving the majority of the shortfall.

MD&A / second-quarter review / delayed large deals · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Transaction Processing revenue decreased 8.1 percent as reported (8.6 percent adjusted for currency), reflecting the shortfall in our IBM Z performance.

MD&A / Software / Transaction Processing revenue decline · Dépôt 23/07/2026

This increase reflects the acquisition of Confluent and growth across other areas of our recurring revenue base.

MD&A / Software / acquisition contribution to ARR growth · Dépôt 23/07/2026

ARR should be viewed independently of software revenue as this performance metric and its inputs may not represent revenue that will be recognized in future periods.

MD&A / Software / ARR limitations · Dépôt 23/07/2026

RPO estimates are subject to change and are affected by several factors, including terminations, changes in the scope of contracts, periodic revalidations, adjustment for revenue that has not materialized and adjustments for currency.

Notes / remaining performance obligations / estimate adjustments · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Further, cloud service providers are leveraging innovation in technology and service delivery to compete with traditional providers and to offer additional routes to market for server and storage systems.

Business / Infrastructure competition / cloud service providers · Dépôt 24/02/2026

Gross margin of 57.7 percent decreased 1.0 point year to year driven by our revenue shortfall and mix, partially offset by productivity actions.

MD&A / second-quarter consolidated gross margin · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Gross margin of 57.0 percent and operating (non-GAAP) gross margin of 58.6 percent were essentially flat compared to the prior-year period and were impacted by the second quarter 2026 revenue shortfall and mix dynamics.

MD&A / first-half consolidated gross margins · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Operating (non-GAAP) pre-tax income from continuing operations of $5.4 billion increased 9.8 percent compared to the prior-year period and the operating (non-GAAP) pre-tax margin from continuing operations increased 0.7 points to 16.4 percent.

MD&A / first-half operating non-GAAP pre-tax results · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Also, some agreements may contain provisions allowing the customer to terminate without cause and providing for higher liability limits for certain losses.

Risk factors / government contracts / termination rights · Dépôt 24/02/2026

IBM delivered $67.5 billion in revenue and $13.2 billion cash from operations.

Proxy / 2025 operating results and cash from operations · Dépôt 10/03/2026

Revenue increased for the third consecutive year, growing 6% at constant currency(1).

Proxy / consecutive annual revenue growth · Dépôt 10/03/2026

The Company also returned more than $6 billion to stockholders through dividends, and ended the year with a solid investment grade balance sheet that continues to provide financial flexibility to support our strategic priorities and long-term value creation.

Proxy / 2025 dividends and balance-sheet description · Dépôt 10/03/2026

($ in millions) Total Consideration (1) Cash paid for outstanding Confluent common stock $ 11,268 Cash paid for Confluent equity awards 269 Cash consideration $ 11,537 Fair value of stock-based compensation awards attributable to pre-acquisition services 65 Total consideration $ 11,602 (1)As part of the assets acquired, the company received $1,165 million of cash and cash equivalents and $917 million of short-term marketable securities from Confluent at the acquisition date.

Acquisition note / Confluent consideration paid and acquired liquidity · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities at March 31, 2026 of $11.8 billion decreased $2.6 billion from December 31, 2025 and debt of $66.4 billion at March 31, 2026 increased $5.1 billion.

MD&A / March 31, 2026 liquidity and debt changes · Dépôt 23/04/2026

Three Months Ended June 30, Six Months Ended June 30, ($ in millions) 2026 2025 2026 2025 Cost $ 73 $ 67 $ 149 $ 132 SG&A expense 228 244 497 461 R&D expense 198 130 358 249 Pre-tax stock-based compensation cost 498 441 1,004 842 Income tax benefits (146) (156) (353) (350) Net stock-based compensation cost $ 352 $ 285 $ 651 $ 492 Pre-tax stock-based compensation cost for the three months ended June 30, 2026 increased $58 million compared to the corresponding period in the prior year primarily due to an increase in restricted stock units ($79 million) due to the issuance and assumption of stock-based compensation awards in connection with recent acquisitions, offset by a decrease in performance share units ($23 million) due to adjustments related to attainment of targets.

Stock-based compensation note / recognized costs and performance-target adjustments · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Period Total Number of Shares Purchased Average Price Paid per Share Total Number of Shares Purchased as Part of Publicly Announced Program Approximate Dollar Value of Shares that May Yet Be Purchased Under The Program (1) April 1, 2026 - April 30, 2026 — $ — — $ 2,007,611,768 May 1, 2026 - May 31, 2026 — $ — — $ 2,007,611,768 June 1, 2026 - June 30, 2026 — $ — — $ 2,007,611,768 Total — $ — — (1)On October 30, 2018, the Board of Directors authorized $4.0 billion in funds for use in the company’s common stock repurchase program.

Issuer repurchases / second-quarter 2026 purchases · Dépôt 23/07/2026

What we do Tie a significant portion of pay to Company performance Mitigate risk taking by emphasizing long-term equity incentives, placing caps on potential payments, and maintaining robust clawback provisions Require significant share ownership by the Chairman, President and CEO, Vice Chairman and Senior Vice Presidents Utilize noncompetition and nonsolicitation agreements for senior executives Remove impact of share repurchase on executive incentives What we don’t do No individual severance or change-in-control agreements for executive officers No excise tax gross-ups for executive officers No dividend equivalents on unearned RSUs/PSUs No hedging/pledging of IBM stock No stock option repricing, exchanges or stock options granted below market value No guaranteed incentive payouts for executive officers No accelerated vesting of equity awards for executive officers No above-market returns on deferred compensation plans 40 IBM 2025 Compensation discussion and analysis Personal stake in IBM’s future through stock ownership requirements Investors want the leaders of their companies to act like owners.

Proxy / existing compensation safeguards and ownership requirements · Dépôt 10/03/2026

We agree, and after careful consideration by the Committee, we introduced a relative Total Shareholder Return (rTSR) modifier to our long-term incentive plan in 2025.

Proxy / relative total shareholder return modifier introduced in 2025 · Dépôt 10/03/2026

The financial targets may be adjusted up or down for extraordinary events if recommended by the Chairman, President and CEO and approved by the Compensation Committee; for example, adjustments are usually made for large acquisitions and divestitures.

Proxy / compensation committee discretion over financial targets · Dépôt 10/03/2026

Members of the Audit Committee, Directors and Corporate Governance Committee, and the Executive Compensation and Management Resources Committee are non-management directors who, in the opinion of the Board, satisfy the independence criteria established by the Board, and the standards of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Proxy / committee independence · Dépôt 10/03/2026

presides at all meetings of the Board at which the Chairman is not present, including executive sessions of the independent directors, which are held at every Board meeting; In addition to these core responsibilities, the Lead Director engages in other regular activities, including: one-on-one debriefs with the Chairman after each meeting; spends time with senior management outside of Board meetings to ensure a deep understanding of the business and strategy of, and risks to, the Company; analyzes CEO performance in executive session in conjunction with the Executive Compensation and Management Resources Committee Chair; maintains regular contact with members of the Board and meeting individually with each independent director; and leads the Board self-evaluation process, interviewing each director, together with the Chairman, and reviews the feedback received with the full Board; attends meetings held by each of the Board’s committees.

Proxy / lead director activities and independent executive sessions · Dépôt 10/03/2026

In turn, throughout 2025, Board agendas included external speakers in order to be responsive to that request.

Proxy / implemented response to board evaluation feedback · Dépôt 10/03/2026

We differentiate from other providers by bringing together incumbency with enterprises, deep expertise in technology, industries and business processes, a broad go-to-market reach including an ecosystem of partners and alliances, and a strong focus on innovation.

Business / issuer description of differentiation · Dépôt 24/02/2026

IBM’s Intellectual Property Portfolio May Not Prevent Competitive Offerings, and IBM May Not Be Able to Obtain Necessary Licenses: The company’s patents and other intellectual property may not prevent competitors from independently developing products and services similar to or duplicative to the company’s, nor can there be any assurance that the resources invested by the company to protect its intellectual property will be sufficient or that the company’s intellectual property portfolio will adequately deter misappropriation or improper use of the company’s technology.

Risk factors / limits of intellectual property protection · Dépôt 24/02/2026

Our competitors include global firms such as Accenture, Capgemini, India-based service providers, management consulting firms, the consulting practices of public accounting firms, engineering service providers, and niche specialists.

Business / named Consulting competitors · Dépôt 24/02/2026

Our principal competitors include: Dell Technologies, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE), Intel, NetApp and Pure Storage as well as original device manufacturers (ODMs) who provide systems that are re-branded.

Business / named Infrastructure competitors · Dépôt 24/02/2026

Many clients redirected spending toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.

MD&A / client purchases ahead of expected infrastructure price increases · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Pre-tax income from continuing operations of $3.9 billion increased 3.0 percent and pre-tax margin was 11.7 percent, a decline of 0.2 points as compared to the first six months of 2025.

MD&A / first-half GAAP pre-tax income and margin · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Many clients redirected spending toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.

Management Discussion—Second Quarter in Review · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Gross margin of 57.7 percent decreased 1.0 point year to year driven by our revenue shortfall and mix, partially offset by productivity actions.

Management Discussion—gross margin analysis · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Many clients redirected spending toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.

Management Discussion: client spending priorities · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Gross margin of 57.7 percent decreased 1.0 point year to year driven by our revenue shortfall and mix, partially offset by productivity actions.

Management Discussion: second-quarter gross margin · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Historique des publications

Historique des publications
VersionMis à jourAvantage concurrentiel
522/10/2026narrow
419/10/2026narrow
318/10/2026narrow
218/10/2026uncertain
118/10/2026Indisponible

Sources

Méthode et limites de l’analyse · Comprendre ce concept