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Abacus Global Management

ABX
NYSE
$9.30

How predictable is Abacus Global Management's business?

Abacus is moving from transactional to recurring, but cash flows still reflect mortality timing and policy lifecycle lumpiness. FY2025 produced $235.2 million in revenue and $36.5 million in GAAP net income; Q1 2026 added $59.4 million of revenue with $7.3 million GAAP net income and operating cash flow of $91.7 million.

Management guides 2026 adjusted net income to $100–$106 million, signaling confidence in fee‑based growth as longevity funds scale. That said, realized gains and policy cash events are inherently uneven, and model transparency depends on actuarial assumptions.

Geographic mix is largely U.S. with a Luxembourg asset‑management hub, both in stable jurisdictions. Overall we view the medium‑term outlook as improving but not yet toll‑booth‑like.