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Nasdaq

NASDAQ: NDAQ · USD

Nasdaq (NDAQ) Economic Moat Analysis56

Competitive advantages, dated evidence and erosion risks.

Narrow economic moat

Nasdaq’s moat is narrow, anchored by switching costs in its Financial Technology platforms and intangible assets in listings and index franchises. Customized, right‑to‑payment deliverables, routine contract modifications and multi‑year deferred revenue support embeddedness and realized pricing power. Strong listings win rates and >$1T ETP AUM evidence brand strength. EU cost‑plus rules for market data and an EC antitrust investigation temper breadth and durability. Limited disclosure on renewals/churn also constrains confidence.

Switching costs

Customized, right‑to‑payment implementations with no alternative use, milestone/upfront billing and frequent non‑distinct contract modifications create embedded switching frictions; demonstrated price increases and pricing‑structure changes confirm client reliance.

Durability
Multi‑year deferred revenue recognition schedules and growing ARR support persistence.
Competitors
Comparison not established
Erosion risks
Alternative providers or client insourcing could erode frictions; lack of disclosed churn/renewal metrics; mix shift with lower professional services.
What would invalidate the thesis
Sustained contraction in deferred revenue and ARR, visible client migrations, or inability to pass price increases would falsify this advantage.
Evidence (8) · Counterevidence (1)

Intangible assets

Regulatory licenses, trade names and index IP underpin exchange and indexing franchises. Strong listings win rates and >$1T of index‑linked ETP AUM with substantial net inflows indicate brand trust and distribution.

Durability
Indefinite‑lived intangibles and repeated index inflows support long‑term endurance.
Competitors
Deutsche Börse, Eurex
Erosion risks
EU cost‑plus rules may cap European regulated market‑data pricing; an EC antitrust investigation involving Deutsche Börse/Eurex could lead to remedies.
What would invalidate the thesis
Sustained loss of listings share, significant index outflows, or regulatory actions materially reducing data revenues/altering market structure would undermine this advantage.
Evidence (7) · Counterevidence (0)

Changes since the previous analysis

  • Maintains a narrow-moat verdict. Strengthened evidence of realized price increases and ARR growth; added EC antitrust investigation (formalized) and EU market data pricing constraints; noted wind‑down of commodities clearing and continued capital returns.

Evidence limitations

  • No explicit disclosure of churn/renewal rates or average contract duration.
  • Competitor names are limited (Deutsche Börse/Eurex) and not comprehensive across all business lines.
  • Pricing power and many operating highlights come from issuer filings/earnings releases without independent third‑party corroboration.

Financial indicators to test against the thesis

Calculated from annual filings. Missing data remains unavailable. Detailed financial charts remain in the other topics.

Financial indicators to test against the thesis
PeriodGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
202158.1%24.5%10.6%15.6%
202257.5%25.1%10.4%25.0%
202364.2%26.0%7.5%25.4%
202462.8%24.3%6.8%23.4%
202563.5%28.2%9.5%24.1%

Pricing power63

  • Pricing outcomes

    Regulatory Technology growth was primarily driven by price increases; Capital Markets Technology also benefited from a change in pricing structure.

  • Customer demand

    ARR increased and deferred revenue spans multiple future years, indicating repeat demand and upsells. No direct renewal/churn figures are provided.

  • Margin resilience

    3Q26 net revenue and operating income rose double‑digits; similar strength was evident earlier in 2026, indicating resilient earnings power.

  • Pricing freedom

    Nasdaq executed price increases and adjusted pricing structures, but EU MiFID II imposes cost‑plus constraints on regulated market‑data pricing.

Management63

  • Capital discipline

    Significant dividends and repurchases alongside some debt repayment; revolver undrawn. Framework appears balanced, though leverage targets/headroom are not detailed here.

  • Incentive alignment

    Compensation emphasizes performance (100% annual and 80% long‑term), includes clawbacks and robust executive stock‑ownership guidelines.

  • Execution

    Double‑digit revenue growth across divisions and ARR expansion; listings franchise captured marquee IPOs and maintained strong win rates.

  • Governance

    Independent committees (with audit experts) and executive‑session practices support oversight. The 5% voting cap limits shareholder influence.

Sources and methodology

Current publication · Updated 31/10/2026 · Version 10

AI interpretation based on checked source excerpts. Issuer assertions and evidence limitations remain explicit.

Policy quality-scores-3: six equally weighted categories. The overall score requires full coverage. Missing inputs are not zero. Qualitative grades are sourced interpretations, not probabilities. 6/6 · 31/10/2026

Moat56

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

structural advantage · 3/4 · Customer‑specific deliverables with no alternative use and a right to payment, milestone/upfront billing, and routine non‑distinct modifications, plus large deferred revenue, demonstrate embeddedness. Realized price increases support a structural edge beyond cost.

durability · 2/4 · Multi‑year deferred revenue and ARR growth indicate persistence. However, the absence of renewal/churn disclosure and some professional‑services softness temper durability confidence.

customer dependency · 2/4 · Clients control the created asset while Nasdaq has a right to payment; contract terms and modifications imply operational dependence. Direct customer retention metrics are not disclosed.

erosion resilience · 2/4 · Price increases and a pricing‑structure change show resilience, but EU cost‑plus rules on market data and the active EC antitrust probe pose risks that could constrain or erode advantages.

Pricing power63

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

realized pricing · 3/4 · Regulatory Technology growth was primarily driven by price increases; Capital Markets Technology also benefited from a change in pricing structure.

retention · 2/4 · ARR increased and deferred revenue spans multiple future years, indicating repeat demand and upsells. No direct renewal/churn figures are provided.

margin resilience · 3/4 · 3Q26 net revenue and operating income rose double‑digits; similar strength was evident earlier in 2026, indicating resilient earnings power.

contractual freedom · 2/4 · Nasdaq executed price increases and adjusted pricing structures, but EU MiFID II imposes cost‑plus constraints on regulated market‑data pricing.

Predictability91

Financial-sector stability over 5 consecutive reported annual periods: equal weights for nondeclining revenue frequency, revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp), positive consolidated earnings frequency, and net-income/revenue margin volatility (3–20pp). Uses reported accounting scope; not industrial FCF or a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
75.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
8.97
positiveEarningsShare
100.00
netMarginStdDev
2.26
observedAnnualPeriods
5.00

Financial strength56

Qualitative financial_services assessment: equal-weight average of four current evidence-backed grades (0–4), scaled to 100. Policy financial-services-1; not an industrial ratio score or credit rating.

capital adequacy · 2/4 · Balance sheet shows equity near $12B and long‑term debt near $8.5B; the exit from commodities clearing and modest remaining regulatory capital needs support adequacy absent a bank‑style ratio.

liquidity funding · 2/4 · Cash on hand, access to commercial paper, and an undrawn revolving credit facility provide liquidity flexibility.

asset liability risk · 2/4 · Default funds and margin deposits declined with the commodities clearing wind‑down; remaining regulatory capital needs are limited, reducing related risk.

earnings resilience · 3/4 · Net revenue and earnings rose strongly through 2026 YTD, supported by diversified segments and operating leverage.

Capital allocation56

Qualitative financial_services assessment: equal-weight average of four current evidence-backed grades (0–4), scaled to 100. Policy financial-services-1; not an industrial ratio score or credit rating.

capital efficiency · 2/4 · Earnings growth and operating leverage improved, but no ROE/ROIC data is provided here; significant amortization of intangibles persists.

distributions and buffers · 2/4 · Dividend was raised to $0.31 and buybacks were sizable, while maintaining an undrawn revolver; buffer metrics are not quantified.

dilution and cost · 2/4 · Diluted share count declined year‑over‑year due to repurchases; some debt was repaid, though total long‑term debt remains meaningful.

investment discipline · 3/4 · Pruned non‑core assets (commodities clearing, Solovis, Risk Modelling) and realized gains, focusing the portfolio on core technology and index franchises.

Management63

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

capital discipline · 2/4 · Significant dividends and repurchases alongside some debt repayment; revolver undrawn. Framework appears balanced, though leverage targets/headroom are not detailed here.

incentive alignment · 3/4 · Compensation emphasizes performance (100% annual and 80% long‑term), includes clawbacks and robust executive stock‑ownership guidelines.

execution · 3/4 · Double‑digit revenue growth across divisions and ARR expansion; listings franchise captured marquee IPOs and maintained strong win rates.

governance · 2/4 · Independent committees (with audit experts) and executive‑session practices support oversight. The 5% voting cap limits shareholder influence.

Evidence

asset with alternative use, and we have a right to payment for

filing-1 revenue recognition policy · Filed 12/02/2026

F-17 For our long-term contracts, payments are generally made

filing-1 revenue recognition/payment terms · Filed 12/02/2026

In most instances, contract modifications are for goods and services that are not distinct, and, therefore, are accounted for as part of the existing contract.

filing-2 contract modifications · Filed 21/02/2025

revenue will be recognized in the following years: Fiscal year ended: 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031+ Total Capital Access Platforms: (in millions) Initial Listings $39 $26 $14 $9 $6 $2 $96 Annual Listings 3 — — — — — 3 Workflow & Insights 196 3 — — — — 199 Other 13 7 4 — — — 24 Financial Technology: Financial Crime Management Technology 186 3 — — — — 189 Regulatory Technology 163 3 — — — — 166 Capital Markets Technology 185 7 3 1 — — 196 Total $785 $49 $21 $10 $6 $2 $873 The timing of recognition of deferred revenue related to

filing-1 deferred revenue timing by future years · Filed 12/02/2026

six months ended June 30, 2026, compared with the same

filing-5 MD&A segment drivers/pricing · Filed 23/07/2026

revenues from our AxiomSL and Surveillance solutions

filing-4 MD&A segment drivers/pricing · Filed 22/10/2026

change in pricing structure, increased subscription revenues

filing-4 MD&A pricing structure change · Filed 22/10/2026

Total indefinite-lived intangible assets $1,239 $1,173 Total intangible assets, net $6,511 $6,905 There was no impairment of intangible assets for the years

filing-1 intangible assets note · Filed 12/02/2026

trillion for the first time, with end-of-period ETP AUM of $1.114 trillion and average ETP AUM

filing-8 Index AUM/inflows · Filed 23/07/2026

•Index revenue of $286 million grew 39% on both a reported and organic

filing-6 Index revenue/inflows · Filed 22/10/2026

74% win rate7 of new operating company listings.

filing-8 listings win rate · Filed 23/07/2026

operating companies, direct listings, and SPAC business combinations.

filing-10 listings leadership/win rate · Filed 23/04/2026

data shall be based on cost plus a reasonable margin.

filing-1 EU MiFID II market data pricing rule · Filed 12/02/2026

In November 2025, the EC opened a formal antitrust

filing-5 EC antitrust investigation · Filed 23/07/2026

Three Months Ended September 30, Percentage Change 2026 2025 (in millions, except per share amounts) Revenues less transaction-based expenses $1,481 $1,315 12.6% Operating expenses 749 729 2.7% Operating income $732 $586 24.9% Net income attributable to Nasdaq $540 $423 27.8% Diluted earnings per share $0.96 $0.73 31.3% Cash dividends declared per common share $0.31 $0.27 14.8% Nine Months Ended September 30, Percentage Change 2026 2025 (in millions, except per share amounts) Revenues less transaction-based expenses $4,388 $3,857 13.8% Operating expenses 2,287 2,155 6.1% Operating income $2,101 $1,702 23.5% Net income attributable to Nasdaq $1,566 $1,270 23.4% Diluted earnings per share $2.76 $2.19 25.9% Cash dividends declared per common share $0.89 $0.78 14.1%

filing-4 quarterly results YoY · Filed 22/10/2026

(US$ millions, except per share) 3Q26 YoY change % Organic2 YoY change % Adjusted2 YoY change % Solutions revenue $1,172 17% 18% 18% Market Services net revenue $309 2% 2% 2% Net revenue $1,481 13% 14% 14% GAAP operating income $732 25% Non-GAAP operating income $843 15% 16% 16% ARR $3,365 12% 14% 14% GAAP diluted EPS $0.96 31% Non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.04 18% 19% 19% 2 FINANCIAL REVIEW •Third quarter 2026 net revenue was $1.5 billion, reflecting 13% growth on a reported basis

filing-6 earnings release highlights · Filed 22/10/2026

•In the third quarter of 2026, the company returned $173 million to

filing-6 capital returns · Filed 22/10/2026

•In the second quarter of 2026, the company returned $174 million to

filing-8 capital returns and net debt repayment · Filed 23/07/2026

As of September 30, 2026, no amounts were outstanding on

filing-4 undrawn revolving credit facility · Filed 22/10/2026

GAAP effective tax rate 22.9% 20.0% Total adjustments from non- GAAP tax rate 0.4% 2.0% Non-GAAP effective tax rate 23.3% 22.0% Weighted-average common shares outstanding for diluted earnings per share 563.3 579.0 U.S.

filing-4 diluted shares outstanding · Filed 22/10/2026

April 2026. We no longer provide commodities clearing and

filing-4 wind‑down of commodities clearing · Filed 22/10/2026

regulatory capital. As of September 30, 2026, other required

filing-4 other regulatory capital requirements · Filed 22/10/2026

All Board Committees, except for the Finance Committee, are comprised exclusively of independent directors, as

filing-12 independent committees/oversight · Filed 24/04/2026

The table below shows the voting results, which exclude excess shares that were ineligible to vote as a result of the 5% voting limitation in the Company’s Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation, as amended (the “Charter”).

filing-14 5% voting limitation · Filed 16/06/2026

65 2026 NASDAQ PROXY STATEMENT What We DO What We DON’T Do Pay for performance: 100% of annual incentives

filing-12 compensation practices (pay for performance, clawbacks) · Filed 24/04/2026

Title Value of Shares Owned Chair and CEO 12 x base salary Presidents 6 x base salary CFO 6 x base salary Management Committee Members 4 x base salary Other EVPs 3 x base salary Individual holdings, shares jointly owned with immediate family members or held in trust, RSUs (whether vested or

filing-12 executive stock ownership guidelines · Filed 24/04/2026

•Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR)3,4 of $3.4 billion increased 12%

filing-6 ARR growth · Filed 22/10/2026

professional services revenues. For the nine months ended

filing-4 segment mix: lower professional services · Filed 22/10/2026

8. DEBT OBLIGATIONS The following table presents the changes in the carrying

filing-5 debt changes/commercial paper and notes · Filed 23/07/2026

Modelling for Catastrophes business previously included in

filing-5 divestiture: Risk Modelling for Catastrophes · Filed 23/07/2026

In October 2025, Nasdaq completed the sale of our Solovis

filing-5 divestiture: Solovis business · Filed 23/07/2026

• First quarter 2026 net revenue1 was$1.4 billion, an increase of 14% over the first quarter of 2025, or 13% on an organic2 basis.

filing-10 Q1 2026 net revenue growth · Filed 23/04/2026

September 30, 2026 December 31, 2025 (unaudited) Assets Current assets: Cash and cash equivalents $365 $604 Restricted cash and cash equivalents 28 210 Default funds and margin deposits (including restricted cash and cash equivalents of $755 and $3,120, respectively) 2,530 5,842 Short-term investments 151 28 Receivables, net 1,171 943 Other current assets 287 376 Total current assets 4,532 8,003 Property and equipment, net 767 728 Goodwill 14,247 14,371 Intangible assets, net 6,106 6,511 Operating lease assets 481 447 Other non-current assets 1,250 993 Total assets $27,383 $31,053 Liabilities Current liabilities: Accounts payable and accrued expenses $252 $280 Section 31 fees payable to SEC 90 — Accrued personnel costs 320 364 Deferred revenue 819 785 Other current liabilities 237 259 Default funds and margin deposits 2,530 5,842 Short-term debt 269 431 Total current liabilities 4,517 7,961 Long-term debt 8,471 8,573 Deferred tax liabilities, net 1,654 1,584 Operating lease liabilities 476 462 Other non-current liabilities 262 241 Total liabilities 15,380 18,821 Commitments and contingencies Equity Nasdaq stockholders’ equity: Common stock, $0.01 par value, 900,000,000 shares authorized, shares issued:

filing-4 balance sheet (cash, default funds, debt, equity) · Filed 22/10/2026

Nasdaq, Inc. Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income

filing-8 income statement (2Q/1H results) · Filed 23/07/2026

Publication history

Publication history
VersionUpdatedCompetitive advantage
1031/10/2026narrow
931/10/2026narrow
828/10/2026narrow
724/10/2026narrow
623/10/2026narrow
522/10/2026narrow
422/10/2026narrow
318/10/2026narrow
218/10/2026narrow
118/10/2026Unavailable

Sources

Research methodology and limitations · What is an economic moat?