AI interpretation based on checked source excerpts. Issuer assertions and evidence limitations remain explicit.
Policy quality-scores-3: six equally weighted categories. The overall score requires full coverage. Missing inputs are not zero. Qualitative grades are sourced interpretations, not probabilities. 2/6 · 29/10/2026
Moat—
Insufficient evidence for every rubric criterion; no category score is inferred.
structural advantage · 2/4 · Granted patent claims, smartphone demonstrations and conditional Vodafone exclusivity establish tangible technical and contractual assets. Their economic significance is mixed: the catalog does not establish exclusion of alternative architectures, superior delivered costs or a sustained commercial advantage. The uncertain verdict reflects that unresolved durability.
durability · 1/4 · Vodafone's agreement offers a long contractual horizon, but termination rights and conditional, geographically bounded five-year exclusivity make protection fragile. Patent lives and enforceability are unspecified. No recognized SpaceMobile Service revenue and continuing beta preparation leave persistence of economic benefits unproven.
customer dependency · 1/4 · Vodafone's ground-station responsibilities and customer advance consideration indicate integration and financial commitment. However, advances relate to unsatisfied obligations, and commercial service revenue had not begun. These support weak emerging dependency rather than demonstrated reliance on an indispensable operating service.
erosion resilience · — · The catalog identifies deployment, regulatory, financing and competing-technology risks, but supplies no observed competitive challenge and response sufficient to assess resilience. Technical progress alone does not establish an ability to preserve customer value or economics against erosion.
Pricing power—
Insufficient evidence for every rubric criterion; no category score is inferred.
realized pricing · — · Neither the disclosed fixed-price milestones nor revenue-sharing arrangements provide observed unit prices, concessions or comparable pricing outcomes. SpaceMobile Service revenue had not been recognized through June 2026. Customer advances and revenue growth cannot isolate price from volume, delivery timing or mix.
retention · 2/4 · Advance consideration increased from $227.0 million at December 31, 2025 to $266.9 million at June 30, 2026. Additional government awards following successful milestones provide indirect evidence of continuing demand. This is mixed relationship-continuity evidence, without demonstrated commercial service renewals or subscriber retention.
margin resilience · — · The disclosed expense expansion reflects deployment, engineering, administration and an involuntary conversion loss. It does not establish how comparable commercial service margins respond to pricing or cost pressure. With no recognized SpaceMobile Service revenue, sustained margin protection cannot be assessed.
contractual freedom · 1/4 · Vodafone's preferential commercial terms and revenue share, together with fixed-price government milestones requiring completion and acceptance, establish constraints on unilateral pricing discretion. These are actual contractual limitations. The supplied catalog does not establish broad repricing rights or unrestricted control of end-user terms.
Predictability—
Missing exact annual revenue, free cash flow or FCF margin; operating cash flow and capex must both be reported for every observed year.
Financial strength50
Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, an original issuer-reported unadjusted EBIT reconciled to net income, income tax and signed net interest, or reported pretax profit plus reported gross interest expense. Reported EBIT is distinct from GAAP operating income and gross interest. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.
- debtFcfGrade
- 0.00
- netDebtEbitGrade
- 100.00
- interestCoverageGrade
- 0.00
- currentRatioGrade
- 100.00
- Interest coverage (x)
- -9.05
- Current ratio (x)
- 16.35
Capital allocation—
Missing required inputs: dilution, sbcRevenue. Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income, an original issuer-reported unadjusted EBIT reconciled to net income, income tax and signed net interest, or EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported gross interest expense; the issuer-reported EBIT is distinct from GAAP operating income and gross interest; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. ROIC remains undefined for nonpositive invested capital; the explicit asset-return alternative does not change the ROIC chart. Missing financial inputs alone never trigger an alternative. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.
- 3-year pre-tax operating return (%)
- -89.52
- cashConversionGrade
- 0.00
Management44
Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.
capital discipline · 2/4 · Customer advances and completed financing support funding execution. Between March and June 2026, disclosed gross capitalized property and equipment rose from approximately $1.8 billion to $2.3 billion, while cash including restricted cash declined from approximately $3.5 billion to $2.7 billion. Rising expenses and the conversion loss temper progress; deployment returns remain unproven.
incentive alignment · 2/4 · Disclosed performance-based long-term incentives and cash/equity clawbacks support alignment. September provisions weaken performance conditionality by converting applicable awards granted after the policy's effective date to time-based awards at target upon change of control, with a share-price-condition forfeiture exception. Actual executive ownership and comprehensive realized pay outcomes remain unestablished.
execution · 2/4 · Issuer-reported peak-speed testing, FCC authorization, spacecraft deployment and additional government awards demonstrate operating progress. The approximately 45-satellite target moved from 2026 in May to early 2027 in August, while beta preparation continued. This mixed execution assessment uses disclosed milestones; reliable scaled commercial service remains unproven.
governance · 1/4 · Avellan and permitted transferees controlled approximately 72.0% of combined voting power as of February 26, 2026. The absence of an independent board majority and combined chairman/CEO roles weaken minority-shareholder accountability. Independent executive sessions during 2025 provide a counterweight without overcoming concentrated control.
Evidence
As of June 30, 2026, the Company has approximately 3,900 patent and patent pending claims worldwide, of which approximately 2,100 have been officially granted or allowed.
June 2026 Form 10-Q, filed August 10, 2026; intellectual property · Filed 10/08/2026
Using the BW3 test satellite, we successfully completed two-way 5G voice calls directly to standard unmodified smartphones, achieved repeated successful download speeds of above 21 megabits per second (“Mbps”) to standard unmodified smartphones and spectral efficiency of approximately 3 bits per second per hertz.
2025 Form 10-K, filed March 2, 2026; BW3 connectivity demonstrations · Filed 02/03/2026
Network deployment continues with next orbital launch in mid-June with BlueBird 8, BlueBird 9 and BlueBird 10 on a Falcon 9 launch vehicle
Vertical integration reaching scale with BlueBird 11 through BlueBird 33 in advanced stages of production and assembly
Achieved 98.9 Mbps peak data speeds using in-orbit Block 1 BlueBird satellite over international waters
FCC authorizes commercial SpaceMobile Service in the United States with grant of Supplemental Coverage from Space for direct-to-device broadband connectivity
First-quarter business update, filed May 11, 2026; measured peak speed and FCC authorization · Filed 11/05/2026
To date, the Company has not recognized any revenues from the SpaceMobile Service.
June 2026 Form 10-Q, filed August 10, 2026; SpaceMobile Service revenue recognition · Filed 10/08/2026
“As we get ready to ship BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 and continue expanding our constellation with production ongoing through BlueBird 46, we are preparing to initiate beta services with select strategic partners.”
Second-quarter business update, filed August 10, 2026; management statement on beta preparation · Filed 10/08/2026
Future capital requirements will depend on many factors, including:
•
Establishing and maintaining supply and manufacturing relationships with third parties that can provide adequate, in both amount and quality, products and services to support our satellite development;
•
Technological or manufacturing difficulties, design issues or other unforeseen matters;
41
•
Negotiation of launch agreements (including launch costs), launch delays or failures, deployment failures or in-orbit satellite failures;
•
Seeking and obtaining necessary regulatory approvals;
•
Timing of the launch of our satellites and subsequent initiation of service in various markets, delays in which will result in increased operating expenses;
•
Addressing any competing technological and market developments;
•
Ability to adjust our expenditures and contractual commitments based on capital availability;
•
Ability to operate under the covenants in our debt agreements;
•
Attracting, hiring, and retaining qualified personnel;
•
Applicable regulatory approval and closing of our proposed transaction with Ligado and related financing;
•
Ability to realize the anticipated benefits of our proposed transaction with Ligado; and
June 2026 Form 10-Q, filed August 10, 2026; capital requirements and deployment dependencies · Filed 10/08/2026
Vodafone
On December 9, 2024, AST LLC and Vodafone entered into a definitive long-term commercial agreement through 2034, subject to certain termination rights, which establishes the framework for Vodafone to offer space-based cellular broadband connectivity in its home markets, as well as to other operators via its Partner Markets program (the “Vodafone Commercial Agreement”).
2024 Form 10-K, filed March 3, 2025; Vodafone agreement duration and termination rights · Filed 03/03/2025
The Vodafone Commercial Agreement includes mutual exclusivity, conditioned upon AST meeting certain service commitments and applicable regulatory or governmental approvals for the services, within certain Vodafone home markets for five years; preferential commercial terms in Vodafone partner markets; a revenue share for the SpaceMobile Service; and the procurement, building and operating of mobile network ground stations at a mutually agreed cost by Vodafone.
2024 Form 10-K, filed March 3, 2025; Vodafone exclusivity, preferential terms, revenue sharing and ground stations · Filed 03/03/2025
As of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, $266.9 million and $227.0 million, respectively, of current and non-current contract liabilities were recorded for advance consideration received from customers for which the associated performance obligations were not yet satisfied.
June 2026 Form 10-Q, filed August 10, 2026; customer advance consideration and unsatisfied obligations · Filed 10/08/2026
These contracts typically contain a single performance obligation and include a series of fixed-price milestones for which the Company has the right to invoice upon completion and customer acceptance.
June 2026 Form 10-Q, filed August 10, 2026; fixed-price government contract milestones · Filed 10/08/2026
Government
o
First quarter revenue was $14.7 million, consistent with plans for quarterly revenue ramp during 2026
o
Approximately half of the full year 2026 revenue guidance is expected to be achieved from existing contracted revenue backlog
o
Won three new awards since March 2026 with the U.S.
First-quarter business update, filed May 11, 2026; revenue and additional government awards · Filed 11/05/2026
Government, through prime contractors, as a result of successful on-orbit milestone activities
•
Company has the key assets – intellectual property, partnerships, balance sheet cash, access to shared MNO and MSS spectrum, over 500,000 square feet of manufacturing and operations space globally – to build and launch over 100 BlueBird satellites to enable global coverage of SpaceMobile Service
o
Dedicated micron production facility in Texas is now fully operational, with capacity to support over 10 satellites’ worth of microns per month
o
Innovative technology backed by shared MNO spectrum, controlled MSS spectrum, and IP with approximately 3,900 patent and patent pending claims
o
Robust balance sheet with approximately $3.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash as of March 31, 2026
First Quarter 2026 Financial Highlights
•
First quarter revenue of $14.7 million driven by gateway deliveries and U.S.
First-quarter business update, filed May 11, 2026; successful on-orbit milestones and issuer manufacturing disclosures · Filed 11/05/2026
Our Adjusted operating expenses, excluding Adjusted cost of revenues(1) for the second quarter of 2026 was $95.9 million, compared to $79.8 million in the first quarter of 2026
•
As of June 30, 2026, we had cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of approximately $2.7 billion
•
As of June 30, 2026, we had incurred approximately $2.3 billion of gross capitalized property and equipment costs and accumulated depreciation and amortization of $211.9 million.
Second-quarter business update, filed August 10, 2026; expenses, cash including restricted cash, and capitalized investment · Filed 10/08/2026
Our Adjusted operating expenses, excluding Adjusted cost of revenues(1) for the first quarter of 2026 was $79.8 million, compared to $66.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2025
•
As of March 31, 2026, we had cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of approximately $3.5 billion
•
As of March 31, 2026, we had incurred approximately $1.8 billion of gross capitalized property and equipment costs and accumulated depreciation and amortization of $191.0 million.
First-quarter business update, filed May 11, 2026; expenses, cash including restricted cash, and capitalized investment · Filed 11/05/2026
This represents an increase of $165.0 million as compared to $164.1 million in the first quarter of 2026 due to a $125.9 million loss on involuntary conversion, a $20.3 million increase in general and administrative costs, a $11.9 million increase in cost of revenues, a $3.2 million increase in engineering services costs, a $3.1 million increase in depreciation and amortization expense, and a $0.6 million increase in research and development costs
•
Adjusted operating expenses(1) for the second quarter of 2026 were $119.1 million, an increase of $27.9 million as compared to $91.2 million in the first quarter of 2026 due to a $12.3 million increase in Adjusted engineering services costs(1), a $11.9 million increase in Adjusted cost of revenues(1), a $3.1 million increase in Adjusted general and administrative costs(1), and a $0.6 million increase in research and development costs.
Second-quarter business update, filed August 10, 2026; operating expense increase and involuntary conversion loss · Filed 10/08/2026
Commitments
There were no material changes in the contractual minimum principal and interest payments required on all of our outstanding debt and operating leases described in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, other than issuance of the 2036 2.25% Convertible Notes and the 2034 1.625% Convertible Notes, repurchase of a portion of the 2032 4.25% Convertible Notes and the 2032 2.375% Convertible Notes and the repayment of the two Prosperity loans as described below.
June 2026 Form 10-Q, filed August 10, 2026; completed debt financing and repurchases · Filed 10/08/2026
Substantial portion of long-term incentive awards are performance based.
Proxy statement, filed April 28, 2026; performance-based long-term incentives · Filed 28/04/2026
No excessive perquisites.
Clawback provisions that apply to both cash and equity incentive awards.
Proxy statement, filed April 28, 2026; cash and equity incentive clawbacks · Filed 28/04/2026
In
addition, the COC Severance Policy provides that all outstanding performance-based equity awards granted after the effective date of
Form 8-K, filed September 28, 2026; scope of performance-award change-of-control provisions · Filed 28/09/2026
the COC Severance Policy shall be converted in their entirety to time-based equity awards upon the occurrence of a Change of Control
Form 8-K, filed September 28, 2026; conversion of applicable performance awards upon change of control · Filed 28/09/2026
based on the assumption that the performance goals are achieved at target; provided, however, that if the transaction price in a Change
Form 8-K, filed September 28, 2026; assumed target performance and exception · Filed 28/09/2026
of Control transaction is below a share price vesting condition, the performance-based equity awards subject to such share price vesting
Form 8-K, filed September 28, 2026; transaction-price condition · Filed 28/09/2026
condition will be forfeited as of the Change of Control.
Form 8-K, filed September 28, 2026; share-price-condition forfeiture · Filed 28/09/2026
“Following the recent orbital launch of BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13, our space-based cellular broadband network has now grown to 13 spacecraft in orbit, each the largest ever in low Earth orbit, with approximately 20,000 square feet of combined aperture hardware deployed,” continued Avellan.
Second-quarter business update, filed August 10, 2026; management report of spacecraft in orbit · Filed 10/08/2026
“Our network deployment for 2026 is targeting approximately 45 satellites in orbit, supported by our manufacturing cadence and multi-partner launch strategy” added Avellan.
First-quarter business update, filed May 11, 2026; approximately 45-satellite target for 2026 · Filed 11/05/2026
target of approximately 45 satellites in orbit in early 2027
Second-quarter presentation, filed August 10, 2026; approximately 45-satellite target for early 2027 · Filed 10/08/2026
As of February 26, 2026, Mr. Avellan and his permitted transferees controlled approximately 72.0% of the combined voting power of our Common Stock as a result of their ownership of all of our Class C Common Stock.
2025 Form 10-K, filed March 2, 2026; voting control as of February 26, 2026 · Filed 02/03/2026
As a result, we do not have a majority of our Board of Directors consisting of independent directors and our directors were not nominated or selected solely by independent directors.
2025 Form 10-K, filed March 2, 2026; absence of an independent board majority · Filed 02/03/2026
The Board’s current leadership structure combines the position of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
Proxy statement, filed April 28, 2026; combined chairman and CEO roles · Filed 28/04/2026
Executive
Sessions
Independent
directors of the Board met in executive session without management at every regularly scheduled meeting during 2025.
Proxy statement, filed April 28, 2026; independent executive sessions during 2025 · Filed 28/04/2026
