Skip to content

Deere & Co

NYSE: DE · USD

Deere & Co (DE) Economic Moat Analysis—

Competitive advantages, dated evidence and erosion risks.

Uncertain economic moat

Deere has an established brand, extensive dealer distribution and integrated equipment technology, but the passages do not establish their durable competitive superiority or the magnitude of customer switching costs. Pricing outcomes are mixed across the cycle: competitive discounting weakened construction pricing in 2025, while realized pricing improved in 2026. The repair-access settlement limits certain aftermarket restrictions, without demonstrating its financial impact. The evidence supports a substantial operating franchise, but remains insufficient to confirm a moat.

Intangible assets

Brand recognition and established distribution are current competitive assets. Approximately 2,050 independent dealer locations in the U.S. and Canada support market access, but neither dealer exclusivity nor superior customer economics is established.

Durability
The established footprint and brand could persist, but replication barriers and sustained competitive outperformance are not demonstrated. Distribution breadth alone does not establish network effects or efficient scale.
Competitors
AGCO Corporation, CLAAS KGaA mbH, CNH Industrial N.V., Kubota Tractor Corporation, Mahindra & Mahindra Limited, The Toro Company
Erosion risks
Established global rivals compete across overlapping product lines. Dealer inventory has delayed purchases, and construction pricing required competitive incentives in 2025.
What would invalidate the thesis
The advantage hypothesis would weaken materially if comparable rivals matched service coverage while Deere persistently lost customer demand or required greater discounting through comparable market conditions.
Evidence (4) · Counterevidence (3)

Switching costs

Bundled precision hardware, embedded software, telematics and dealer connections provide a plausible source of workflow dependence. These capabilities currently exist; material customer switching costs and retention benefits remain unproven.

Durability
Equipment integration could sustain customer relationships over equipment lifetimes. The passages do not quantify migration costs, renewal behavior, technology engagement or customer productivity gains against alternatives.
Competitors
AGCO Corporation, CLAAS KGaA mbH, CNH Industrial N.V., Kubota Tractor Corporation, Mahindra & Mahindra Limited, The Toro Company
Erosion risks
Technology-focused entrants may compete with Deere's integrated offering. The July 2026 settlement requires access to certain repair resources on fair and reasonable terms, constraining reliance on restricted repair access.
What would invalidate the thesis
The switching-cost hypothesis would fail if customers could migrate equipment data and workflows to alternatives with little disruption, or if independently accessible service eliminated any meaningful purchasing preference for Deere.
Evidence (5) · Counterevidence (3)

Changes since the previous analysis

  • Retains the previous uncertain verdict; the additional passages establish competitive assets but do not resolve their comparative durability.
  • Updates pricing assessment to incorporate favorable realized pricing in 2026 and 2023 cost recovery alongside 2025 competitive discounting.
  • Adds named agriculture and turf competitors and actual proxy disclosures supporting incentive-alignment and governance assessments.

Evidence limitations

  • All source dates retain dateKind filed; the latest supplied filing is dated August 27, 2026. Reporting periods and settlement dates are distinguished from filing dates.
  • The supplied filings identify agriculture and turf competitors, but establish neither their comparative economics nor named construction and forestry competitor coverage. Listed companies are not proven competitors in every Deere product or technology category.
  • Brand importance and strategic benefits are issuer assessments. Dealer counts, realized pricing, contractual obligations and reported operating results provide firmer evidence, but do not independently establish durable superiority.
  • No quantified switching costs, customer retention rates, technology renewal results, actual engaged-acre totals or competitor market-share trends are supplied.
  • The repair settlement establishes obligations and oversight, not an adjudicated finding of monopolization or a measured loss of aftermarket earnings.
  • Ownership requirements and equity awards are disclosed, but complete beneficial ownership amounts are absent. Governance structures and management's controls conclusion do not prove exceptional governance effectiveness.
  • Consolidated cash flows include Financial Services; acquisition returns and a complete equipment-only capital-allocation record are not established.

Financial indicators to test against the thesis

Calculated from annual filings. Missing data remains unavailable. Detailed financial charts remain in the other topics.

Financial indicators to test against the thesis
PeriodGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
2021—18.2%12.4%15.6%
2022—18.1%—6.8%
2023—21.2%—11.6%
2024—17.5%—14.7%
2025———13.4%

Pricing power50

  • Pricing outcomes

    Pricing exceeded cost increases in 2023 and contributed $403 million pretax to third-quarter 2026 improvement. Construction pricing fell 3% in the U.S. and Canada in 2025 because of competitive incentives. These are mixed realized outcomes across the cycle.

  • Customer demand

    Existing maintenance-component sales, renewable technology offerings and connected equipment support recurring customer relationships indirectly. They do not establish renewal rates or same-customer equipment repurchases; 2026 demand improvement coexists with substantial 2025 weakness.

  • Margin resilience

    Deere remained profitable through the 2023–2025 contraction, and reported stronger returns than prior cycle troughs. Earnings nevertheless fell substantially, while 2026 pricing and small-agriculture profit improvements faced higher production costs. Resilience is demonstrated but mixed.

  • Pricing freedom

    Deere can introduce dealer incentive programs after equipment sales, demonstrating discretion over commercial concessions. Certain technology entails service-period obligations, and repair-resource terms are constrained by the settlement. Broader equipment repricing rights are not supplied.

Management63

  • Capital discipline

    Nine-month 2026 operating cash inflow of $3.250 billion accompanied $825 million of net investing outflows, $2.013 billion returned to shareholders and slightly lower borrowings. The completed $439 million Tenna purchase is documented, but its returns remain unproven and consolidated investing flows include financing activity.

  • Incentive alignment

    Existing incentives use asset returns, profitability, relative revenue growth and relative shareholder returns. The completed 2025 PSU performance period produced no payout after below-threshold relative growth, demonstrating an actual consequence. Ownership requirements, clawbacks and hedging prohibitions add safeguards; actual ownership amounts are missing.

  • Execution

    Actual 2026 sales growth, favorable pricing and small-agriculture profit improvement support execution, assessed partly through indirect operating outcomes. They are balanced by 2025 inventory-related purchase delays, weaker demand and incentives, and a completed PSU period with below-threshold relative revenue growth.

  • Governance

    Disclosed independent committee structures, regular executive sessions, annual elections, majority voting, proxy access and independent CEO compensation evaluation support strong governance arrangements. The combined chair/CEO position and repair settlement temper the assessment; the effective-controls conclusion is management's assessment.

Sources and methodology

Current publication · Updated 18/10/2026 · Version 4

AI interpretation based on checked source excerpts. Issuer assertions and evidence limitations remain explicit.

Policy quality-scores-2: six equally weighted categories. The overall score requires full coverage. Missing inputs are not zero. Qualitative grades are sourced interpretations, not probabilities. 3/6 · 18/10/2026

Moat—

Insufficient evidence for every rubric criterion; no category score is inferred.

structural advantage · — · Brand, distribution and integrated technology are established assets, but their superiority and barriers to replication are insufficiently demonstrated to confirm a moat.

durability · — · The passages do not establish sustained competitive advantage through changing technology, regulation and industry cycles.

customer dependency · — · Bundled technology and dealer connectivity suggest dependence, but migration friction, purchasing loyalty and renewal outcomes are not established.

erosion resilience · — · Pricing recovery demonstrates operating resilience, but competitive incentives and repair-access changes leave structural erosion resilience unresolved.

Pricing power50

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

realized pricing · 2/4 · Pricing exceeded cost increases in 2023 and contributed $403 million pretax to third-quarter 2026 improvement. Construction pricing fell 3% in the U.S. and Canada in 2025 because of competitive incentives. These are mixed realized outcomes across the cycle.

retention · 2/4 · Existing maintenance-component sales, renewable technology offerings and connected equipment support recurring customer relationships indirectly. They do not establish renewal rates or same-customer equipment repurchases; 2026 demand improvement coexists with substantial 2025 weakness.

margin resilience · 2/4 · Deere remained profitable through the 2023–2025 contraction, and reported stronger returns than prior cycle troughs. Earnings nevertheless fell substantially, while 2026 pricing and small-agriculture profit improvements faced higher production costs. Resilience is demonstrated but mixed.

contractual freedom · 2/4 · Deere can introduce dealer incentive programs after equipment sales, demonstrating discretion over commercial concessions. Certain technology entails service-period obligations, and repair-resource terms are constrained by the settlement. Broader equipment repricing rights are not supplied.

Predictability80

Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
50.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
15.88
Positive FCF years (%)
100.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
3.12

Financial strength—

Missing required inputs: debtFcfGrade, netDebtEbitGrade, currentRatioGrade. Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

interestCoverageGrade
17.94

Capital allocation—

Missing required inputs: operatingReturn. Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year average dilution (%)
-3.81
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
0.31
cashConversionGrade
93.22

Management63

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

capital discipline · 2/4 · Nine-month 2026 operating cash inflow of $3.250 billion accompanied $825 million of net investing outflows, $2.013 billion returned to shareholders and slightly lower borrowings. The completed $439 million Tenna purchase is documented, but its returns remain unproven and consolidated investing flows include financing activity.

incentive alignment · 3/4 · Existing incentives use asset returns, profitability, relative revenue growth and relative shareholder returns. The completed 2025 PSU performance period produced no payout after below-threshold relative growth, demonstrating an actual consequence. Ownership requirements, clawbacks and hedging prohibitions add safeguards; actual ownership amounts are missing.

execution · 2/4 · Actual 2026 sales growth, favorable pricing and small-agriculture profit improvement support execution, assessed partly through indirect operating outcomes. They are balanced by 2025 inventory-related purchase delays, weaker demand and incentives, and a completed PSU period with below-threshold relative revenue growth.

governance · 3/4 · Disclosed independent committee structures, regular executive sessions, annual elections, majority voting, proxy access and independent CEO compensation evaluation support strong governance arrangements. The combined chair/CEO position and repair settlement temper the assessment; the effective-controls conclusion is management's assessment.

Evidence

John Deere’s brand recognition is a competitive factor in North America and many other parts of the world.

Business / brand recognition · Filed 12/12/2024

and Canada, we market products to approximately 2,050 independent dealer locations.

Business / sales and distribution / dealer locations · Filed 18/12/2025

Outside the U.S. and Canada, our agriculture and turf equipment is sold to distributors and dealers for resale in over 100 countries.

Business / international dealer distribution · Filed 18/12/2025

The competitive environment for the agriculture and turf operations includes some global competitors, such as AGCO Corporation, CLAAS KGaA mbH, CNH Industrial N.V., Kubota Tractor Corporation, Mahindra & Mahindra Limited, and The Toro Company.

Business / named agriculture and turf competitors · Filed 12/12/2024

When the total inventory levels of our dealers are higher than they desire, dealers have postponed equipment purchases from us, and could continue to postpone purchases in the future, which could cause our sales to be lower and negatively impact our results.

Risk factors / realized dealer inventory purchase delays · Filed 18/12/2025

Price realization decreased 3% in the U.S.

MD&A / construction and forestry / 2025 price realization · Filed 18/12/2025

and Canada due to incremental incentive programs deployed to address pressures from the competitive environment and was flat outside the U.S.

MD&A / construction and forestry / competitive incentives · Filed 18/12/2025

Certain equipment is sold with precision guidance, telematics, and other information gathering and analyzing capabilities.

Revenue recognition / equipment precision and telematics capabilities · Filed 18/12/2025

These technology solutions require hardware, software, and may include an obligation to provide services for a period of time.

Revenue recognition / technology hardware, software and service obligations · Filed 18/12/2025

These solutions are mostly bundled with the sale of the equipment but can also be purchased or renewed separately.

Revenue recognition / bundled and separately renewable technology · Filed 18/12/2025

Our advanced telematics systems remotely connect equipment owners, business managers, and dealers to equipment in the field.

Business / telematics connections to owners, managers and dealers · Filed 12/12/2024

As technology increasingly enables enhanced productivity in agriculture, the industry is also attracting non-traditional competitors, including technology-focused companies and start-up ventures.

Business / nontraditional technology competition · Filed 12/12/2024

As part of that settlement, we have agreed, among other items, to provide certain repair resources to farmers and independent repair providers on “fair and reasonable terms” (as defined by the settlement).

Legal proceedings / July 2026 repair-access settlement obligations · Filed 27/08/2026

We have also agreed to provide regular reporting to the FTC and submit to the FTC’s oversight of our compliance with the settlement.

Legal proceedings / FTC reporting and compliance oversight · Filed 27/08/2026

Net income and diluted EPS grew at a faster rate than sales due to our ability to keep cost increases below price realization.

MD&A / 2023 price realization relative to cost increases · Filed 15/12/2023

Net income increased $90 in the third quarter primarily due to favorable price realization of $286 ($403 pretax), partially offset by unfavorable tax impacts of $114 and increased production costs of $89 ($126 pretax), primarily from higher material costs.

MD&A / third-quarter 2026 realized pricing and production-cost effects · Filed 27/08/2026

​ ​ 46 Table of Contents DEERE & COMPANY STATEMENTS OF CONSOLIDATED INCOME For the Years Ended November 2, 2025, October 27, 2024, and October 29, 2023 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 2025 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 2024 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 2023 Net Sales and Revenues ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Net sales ​ $ 38,917 ​ $ 44,759 ​ $ 55,565 ​ Finance and interest income ​ 5,748 ​ 5,759 ​ 4,683 ​ Other income ​ 1,019 ​ 1,198 ​ 1,003 ​ Total ​ 45,684 ​ 51,716 ​ 61,251 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Costs and Expenses ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Cost of sales ​ 28,159 ​ 30,775 ​ 37,715 ​ Research and development expenses ​ 2,311 ​ 2,290 ​ 2,177 ​ Selling, administrative and general expenses ​ 4,663 ​ 4,840 ​ 4,595 ​ Interest expense ​ 3,170 ​ 3,348 ​ 2,453 ​ Other operating expenses ​ 1,124 ​ 1,257 ​ 1,292 ​ Total ​ 39,427 ​ 42,510 ​ 48,232 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Income of Consolidated Group before Income Taxes ​ 6,257 ​ 9,206 ​ 13,019 ​ Provision for income taxes ​ 1,259 ​ 2,094 ​ 2,871 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Income of Consolidated Group ​ 4,998 ​ 7,112 ​ 10,148 ​ Equity in income (loss) of unconsolidated affiliates ​ ​ ​ (24) ​ 7 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Net Income ​ 4,998 ​ 7,088 ​ 10,155 ​ Less: Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interests ​ (29) ​ (12) ​ (11) ​ Net Income Attributable to Deere & Company ​ $ 5,027 ​ $ 7,100 ​ $ 10,166 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Per Share Data ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Basic ​ $ 18.55 ​ $ 25.73 ​ $ 34.80 ​ Diluted ​ ​ 18.50 ​ ​ 25.62 ​ ​ 34.63 ​ Dividends declared ​ ​ 6.48 ​ ​ 5.88 ​ ​ 5.05 ​ Dividends paid ​ ​ 6.33 ​ ​ 5.76 ​ ​ 4.83 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Average Shares Outstanding (in millions of shares) ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Basic ​ 270.9 ​ 276.0 ​ 292.2 ​ Diluted ​ 271.7 ​ 277.1 ​ 293.6 ​ ​ The notes to consolidated financial statements are an integral part of this statement.

Consolidated income statements / 2023–2025 results and share counts · Filed 18/12/2025

Operating profit for the first nine months increased due to higher shipment volumes / sales mix and favorable price realization, partially offset by higher production costs due to an increase in material costs.

MD&A / small agriculture and turf / nine-month operating-profit drivers · Filed 27/08/2026

There are numerous programs available at any time, and new programs may be announced after we record the equipment sale to the dealer.

Accounting estimates / discretion to announce dealer incentive programs · Filed 18/12/2025

37 ​ Cash Flows ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Nine Months Ended ​ ​ ​ August 2, 2026 ​ July 27, 2025 ​ Net cash provided by operating activities ​ $ 3,250 ​ $ 3,464 ​ Net cash used for investing activities ​ ​ (825) ​ ​ (801) ​ Net cash used for financing activities ​ ​ (1,828) ​ ​ (1,557) ​ Effect of exchange rate changes on cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash ​ ​ 20 ​ ​ 108 ​ Net increase (decrease) in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash ​ $ 617 ​ $ 1,214 ​ ​ Cash inflows from consolidated operating activities in the first nine months of 2026 were $3,250.

MD&A / nine-month 2026 consolidated cash flows · Filed 27/08/2026

Cash returned to shareholders was $2,013 in the first nine months of 2026.

MD&A / nine-month 2026 cash returned to shareholders · Filed 27/08/2026

Tenna was acquired for a purchase price of $439, net of $1 cash acquired, and the purchase price allocation to acquired assets and assumed liabilities is presented below.

Acquisitions / completed Tenna purchase consideration · Filed 27/08/2026

Borrowings. Total external borrowings decreased by $100 in the first nine months of 2026 and decreased $2,810 compared to a year ago, generally corresponding with the level of the receivable and lease portfolio, as well as other working capital requirements.

MD&A / actual external borrowing changes · Filed 27/08/2026

​ Type of Compensation Metric ​ ​ ​ Alignment with Business Strategy Short-Term short-term incentive (known within Deere as STI) Operating Return on Operating Assets (OROA) ​ ​ Return on capital and assets through disciplined asset management and capital allocation ​ ​ Operating Return on Sales (OROS) ​ ​ Profitability through operating margin focus ​ ​ Return on Equity (ROE) ​ ​ Return on equity through efficient use of equity Long-Term long-term Incentive (known within Deere as LTI) Relative Revenue Growth ​ ​ Sustained growth outperformance ​ ​ Relative Total Shareholder Return (rTSR) ​ ​ Comparative TSR outperformance ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ As our NEOs assume greater responsibility, we award a larger portion of their total compensation in the form of performance-based or “at-risk” incentive awards and a larger portion of their incentive awards in the form of equity.

Executive compensation / existing incentive metrics · Filed 14/01/2026

As discussed in the CD&A under “Long-term Incentive PSU Payout for Performance Period Ended 2025,” the PSUs had no payout due to the revenue growth relative to the performance peer group performing below the threshold.

Outstanding equity awards / completed performance period with no PSU payout · Filed 14/01/2026

We are committed to sound governance practices, including those described below: INDEPENDENCE ​ ◾ All of our director nominees, except our Chairman and CEO, are independent ◾ The independent Lead Director has a role with significant governance responsibilities ◾ All standing Board committees other than the Executive Committee are composed wholly of independent directors ◾ Independent directors meet regularly in executive session without management present BEST PRACTICES ​ ◾ Directors may not stand for re-election after their 75th birthdays, absent Board approval provided in rare circumstances ◾ Directors may not serve on more than three other public company boards, and sitting public company CEOs may not serve on more than one other public company board ◾ Directors may not serve on the audit committee of more than three public companies, including Deere’s Audit Review Committee ◾ Directors rotate committee membership periodically, as approved by the Board ◾ Our recoupment policy requires an executive to return any incentive compensation found to have been awarded erroneously in the event of a financial restatement ◾ Directors and executives are subject to stock ownership requirements ◾ Directors and executives are prohibited from hedging or pledging their Deere stock ACCOUNTABILITY ​ ◾ All directors are elected annually ◾ In uncontested elections, directors are elected by majority vote ◾ The Board and each active Board committee conducts an annual performance self-evaluation ◾ Shareholders have the ability to include nominees in our proxy statement (so-called proxy access rights) RISK OVERSIGHT ​ ◾ The Board oversees Deere’s overall risk management structure ◾ Individual Board committees oversee certain risks related to their specific areas of responsibility ◾ We have robust risk management processes throughout the Company ​ OUR VALUES Our actions are guided by our core values: Integrity, Quality, Humanity, Commitment, and Innovation.

Corporate governance / independence, ownership rules and accountability · Filed 14/01/2026

Generally, at the Board meeting in August, the independent members of the full Board (in executive session without the CEO present) evaluates the CEO’s performance.

Compensation process / independent directors evaluate CEO · Filed 14/01/2026

The CEO does not play a role in and is not present during discussions regarding his own compensation.

Compensation process / CEO exclusion from own compensation discussions · Filed 14/01/2026

Item 4.CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES Our principal executive officer and principal financial officer have concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act)) were effective as of August 2, 2026, based on the evaluation of these controls and procedures required by Rule 13a-15(b) or 15d-15(b) of the Exchange Act.

Controls and procedures / management conclusion as of August 2, 2026 · Filed 27/08/2026

Net sales and revenues increased 5% and 7% for the quarter and year-to-date periods, respectively, primarily due to higher sales volumes, the positive effects of foreign currency translation, and favorable price realization.

MD&A / realized quarterly and year-to-date revenue growth · Filed 27/08/2026

We remanufacture used engines and components (cores) that are sold to dealers and retail customers for maintenance and repair parts.

Revenue recognition / remanufactured maintenance and repair components · Filed 18/12/2025

In fiscal year 2025, unfavorable market conditions resulted in lower sales volumes, greater reliance on sales incentives, and elevated receivable write-offs.

Risk factors / realized 2025 volume, incentive and write-off pressures · Filed 18/12/2025

Specifically, fiscal 2025 OROA performance exceeded 2009 and 2016 levels by more than 40%, while OROS outperformed those same periods by over 58%.

Compensation discussion / reported 2025 returns versus prior cycle troughs · Filed 14/01/2026

Publication history

Publication history
VersionUpdatedCompetitive advantage
418/10/2026uncertain
318/10/2026uncertain
218/10/2026uncertain
118/10/2026Unavailable

Sources

Research methodology and limitations · What is an economic moat?