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Moody’s

NYSE: MCO · USD

Moody’s (MCO) Economic Moat Analysis63

Competitive advantages, dated evidence and erosion risks.

Narrow economic moat

Moody’s exhibits a narrow moat anchored by intangible assets and switching costs. Investor reliance on Moody’s ratings and MA’s proprietary, validated data underpin trust and pricing power. MA’s multi‑year, workflow‑embedded subscriptions and sizable remaining performance obligations indicate stickiness. However, disclosed pricing pressure, potential regulatory constraints (especially in the EU), and technology-driven disintermediation risks limit confidence to wide.

Intangible assets

Investor demand for Moody’s opinions enhances issuers’ access to capital, while proprietary datasets (including the world’s largest database on companies and credit) and validated analytical models support trusted, decision‑grade intelligence.

Durability
A 115+ year franchise and a very large base of rated debt suggest persistent relevance and trust across cycles.
Competitors
Comparison not established
Erosion risks
Pricing pressure, evolving regulations affecting pricing and non‑EU ratings, and new technologies or unrated issuance could erode perceived value.
What would invalidate the thesis
Sustained investor migration to unrated/alternative ratings, regulatory changes that commoditize services/pricing, or material deterioration in data quality and customer outcomes.
Evidence (7) · Counterevidence (4)

Switching costs

MA solutions are embedded in regulated banking, insurance and KYC workflows and are sold via multi‑year subscriptions, evidenced by sizable remaining performance obligations.

Durability
Regulatory compliance and workflow integration create friction to replace; contracted multi‑year backlog diversifies revenue timing and supports renewals.
Competitors
Comparison not established
Erosion risks
Technological shifts and customer/competitor pricing pressure could reduce embeddedness or constrain renewals.
What would invalidate the thesis
Declining MA remaining performance obligations/ARR, visible churn in large subscriptions, or mandated portability that lowers integration frictions.
Evidence (5) · Counterevidence (2)

Network effects

Investors’ broad use of Moody’s opinions makes issuers’ debt more attractive, reinforcing issuer incentives to seek ratings and strengthening the two‑sided network.

Durability
The scale of total rated debt outstanding reinforces the network’s persistence.
Competitors
Comparison not established
Erosion risks
Growth of unrated issuance, non‑traditional ratings, or credibility concerns could weaken the network.
What would invalidate the thesis
Sustained share loss to unrated or alternative-rated issuance without adverse funding costs, or broad investor de‑weighting of Moody’s opinions.
Evidence (4) · Counterevidence (2)

Changes since the previous analysis

  • Verdict unchanged (narrow). Added Q3 2026 disclosures of recurring revenue price increases and updated MA remaining performance obligations to reinforce pricing power and switching‑costs evidence.

Evidence limitations

  • No named competitors in the supplied passages; comparisons are limited to disclosed risk factors.
  • Retention is inferred from multi‑year RPO and workflow embedding; no consolidated churn/renewal statistics provided.
  • Efficient‑scale advantages are not explicitly documented; conclusions avoid inferring moat width from margins alone.
  • All evidence derives from issuer filings and earnings materials; no independent third‑party validation of customer outcomes is included.

Financial indicators to test against the thesis

Calculated from annual filings. Missing data remains unavailable. Detailed financial charts remain in the other topics.

Financial indicators to test against the thesis
PeriodGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
202173.7%45.7%32.4%30.0%
202270.5%34.4%17.5%21.8%
202371.5%36.1%21.3%31.8%
202472.6%40.6%25.7%35.6%
202574.4%43.4%30.0%33.4%

Pricing power69

  • Pricing outcomes

    Recurring revenue increases in MIS are explicitly attributed in part to annual price increases across multiple periods, evidencing realized pricing power.

  • Customer demand

    Large, multi‑year MA remaining performance obligations and workflow embedding point to strong ongoing usage and renewals, albeit without quantified churn metrics.

  • Margin resilience

    Operating and adjusted operating margins expanded year‑over‑year alongside strong revenue growth, indicating recent resilience even as issuance conditions contributed.

  • Pricing freedom

    Implemented annual price increases indicate some pricing discretion, but EU regulatory provisions may impose additional pricing requirements, limiting full freedom.

Management69

  • Capital discipline

    Management generated substantial free cash flow and returned significant capital via repurchases and dividends; however, disclosures do not evidence realized ROI/IRR thresholds or counter‑cyclical restraint.

  • Incentive alignment

    Robust stock ownership guidelines with hold‑until‑met provisions and a comprehensive clawback policy support alignment with long‑term shareholder value.

  • Execution

    Quarterly results show double‑digit revenue growth and margin expansion, reflecting effective delivery across segments during favorable market conditions.

  • Governance

    Nine of ten directors are independent and all key committees are fully independent, supporting oversight quality.

Sources and methodology

Current publication · Updated 29/10/2026 · Version 11

AI interpretation based on checked source excerpts. Issuer assertions and evidence limitations remain explicit.

Policy quality-scores-3: six equally weighted categories. The overall score requires full coverage. Missing inputs are not zero. Qualitative grades are sourced interpretations, not probabilities. 6/6 · 29/10/2026

Moat63

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

structural advantage · 3/4 · Moody’s ratings are sought by investors and facilitate issuers’ access to capital, while MA’s proprietary, validated data and models (including the world’s largest company/credit database) are embedded in customer workflows—indicating strong intangible assets and integration.

durability · 2/4 · A 115+ year franchise, very large rated-debt base and multi‑year MA RPO support persistence, but management discloses pricing pressure, regulatory and technology disruption risks that temper long‑term certainty.

customer dependency · 3/4 · Solutions are embedded in regulated workflows and backed by signed multi‑year arrangements with sizeable remaining obligations, indicating meaningful dependency and switching frictions.

erosion resilience · 2/4 · Realized annual price increases and recurring growth support resilience, yet disclosed pricing pressure and potential disintermediation introduce credible erosion pathways not fully mitigated here.

Pricing power69

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

realized pricing · 3/4 · Recurring revenue increases in MIS are explicitly attributed in part to annual price increases across multiple periods, evidencing realized pricing power.

retention · 3/4 · Large, multi‑year MA remaining performance obligations and workflow embedding point to strong ongoing usage and renewals, albeit without quantified churn metrics.

margin resilience · 3/4 · Operating and adjusted operating margins expanded year‑over‑year alongside strong revenue growth, indicating recent resilience even as issuance conditions contributed.

contractual freedom · 2/4 · Implemented annual price increases indicate some pricing discretion, but EU regulatory provisions may impose additional pricing requirements, limiting full freedom.

Predictability87

5 consecutive published annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
75.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
11.51
Positive FCF years (%)
100.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
4.73
observedAnnualPeriods
5.00

Financial strength82

Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, an original issuer-reported unadjusted EBIT reconciled to net income, income tax and signed net interest, or reported pretax profit plus reported gross interest expense. Reported EBIT is distinct from GAAP operating income and gross interest. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

debtFcfGrade
75.48
netDebtEbitGrade
72.49
interestCoverageGrade
100.00
currentRatioGrade
79.17
Debt / FCF (x)
2.72
Net debt / operating income (x)
1.38
Current ratio (x)
1.74
cashInterestPaid
235.00
cashInterestCoverage
12.34

Capital allocation98

Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income, an original issuer-reported unadjusted EBIT reconciled to net income, income tax and signed net interest, or EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported gross interest expense; the issuer-reported EBIT is distinct from GAAP operating income and gross interest; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. ROIC remains undefined for nonpositive invested capital; the explicit asset-return alternative does not change the ROIC chart. Missing financial inputs alone never trigger an alternative. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year pre-tax operating return (%)
32.49
3-year average dilution (%)
-0.88
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
3.12
cashConversionGrade
100.00

Management69

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

capital discipline · 2/4 · Management generated substantial free cash flow and returned significant capital via repurchases and dividends; however, disclosures do not evidence realized ROI/IRR thresholds or counter‑cyclical restraint.

incentive alignment · 3/4 · Robust stock ownership guidelines with hold‑until‑met provisions and a comprehensive clawback policy support alignment with long‑term shareholder value.

execution · 3/4 · Quarterly results show double‑digit revenue growth and margin expansion, reflecting effective delivery across segments during favorable market conditions.

governance · 3/4 · Nine of ten directors are independent and all key committees are fully independent, supporting oversight quality.

Evidence

The Benefits of a Moody's Rating Investors seek Moody's opinions and particularly value the knowledge of its analysts and the depth of Moody's research Access to capital Transparency, credit comparison and market stability Planning and budgeting Analytical capabilities •Moody’s opinions on credit are used by institutional investors throughout the world, making an issuer’s debt potentially more attractive to a wide range of buyers.

2024 10-K: Item 1—Business, MIS 'The Benefits of a Moody’s Rating' · Filed 14/02/2025

•A Moody’s rating may facilitate access to both domestic and international debt capital.

2024 10-K: Item 1—Business, MIS benefits · Filed 14/02/2025

For more than 115 years, MIS has been a leading provider of credit ratings, research, and risk analysis helping businesses, governments, and other entities around the globe.

2024 10-K: Item 1—Business, MIS overview · Filed 14/02/2025

MIS by the Numbers $75.8+ trillion 4,800+ 3,300+ Total Rated Debt Outstanding Non-Financial Corporates Financial Institutions 33,300+ 14,400+ 8,900+ Rated Organizations and Structured Deals U.S.

2024 10-K: Item 1—Business, MIS by the Numbers · Filed 14/02/2025

MA is comprised of: i) a premier fixed income and economic research business (Research & Insights); ii) a data business powered by the world’s largest database on companies and credit (Data & Information); and iii) three cloud-based subscription businesses serving banking, insurance and KYC workflows (Decision Solutions).

2024 10-K: Item 1—Business, MA overview · Filed 14/02/2025

Moody’s offerings are distinguished by our vast proprietary and curated data and validated analytical models, which provide the trusted foundation that enable our customers to navigate an increasingly complex risk landscape.

2025 10-K: Item 1—Business, Company overview · Filed 18/02/2026

MA's integrated and technology-enabled solutions provide unique capabilities and insights that are embedded in customer workflows.

2024 10-K: Item 1—Business, MA 'embedded in customer workflows' · Filed 14/02/2025

MA's curated data and analytics transform information into decision-grade intelligence and power its AI-enabled cloud-based workflow tools, helping customers start business relationships, monitor and manage risk, and comply and report based on global laws, rules and regulations.

2025 10-K: Item 1—Business, MA overview · Filed 18/02/2026

Remaining performance obligation Remaining performance obligations in the MA segment include both amounts recorded as deferred revenue on the balance sheet as of June 30, 2026 as well as amounts not yet invoiced to customers as of June 30, 2026, largely reflecting future revenue related to signed multi-year arrangements for hosted and installed subscription-based products.

Q2 2026 10-Q: Remaining performance obligations (MA, multi‑year) · Filed 23/07/2026

As of June 30, 2026, the aggregate amount of the transaction price allocated to remaining performance obligations was approximately $4.6 billion.

Q2 2026 10-Q: MA remaining performance obligations $4.6B · Filed 23/07/2026

Recurring revenue increased $38 million, primarily reflecting the impact of annual price increases and higher monitored credits.

2025 10-K: MD&A—Recurring revenue drivers (annual price increases) · Filed 18/02/2026

Recurring revenue increased $11 million, primarily reflecting the impact of annual price increases and higher monitored credits.

Q2 2026 10-Q: MIS recurring revenue—annual price increases · Filed 23/07/2026

Recurring revenue increased $17 million, primarily reflecting the impact of annual price increases and higher monitored credits.

Q3 2026 10-Q: MIS recurring revenue—annual price increases · Filed 21/10/2026

Three Months Ended June 30, Amounts in millions, except percentages and per share amounts 2026 2025 % Change MCO Revenue $ 2,185 $ 1,898 15 % MCO Operating Margin 47.9 % 43.1 % 480 bps MCO Adjusted Operating Margin2 55.3 % 50.9 % 440 bps MCO Diluted EPS $ 5.03 $ 3.21 57 % MCO Adjusted Diluted EPS2 $ 4.68 $ 3.56 31 % MA Revenue $ 925 $ 888 4 % MA Organic Constant Currency Revenue2 $ 920 $ 852 8 % MA ARR3 $ 3,661 $ 3,372 9 % MA Adjusted Operating Margin 33.6 % 32.1 % 150 bps MIS Revenue $ 1,260 $ 1,010 25 % MIS Transactional Revenue $ 891 $ 663 34 % MIS Adjusted Operating Margin 68.3 % 64.2 % 410 bps 1 Guidance as of July 22, 2026.

Q2 2026 Earnings Release: Key financials and margin expansion · Filed 22/07/2026

— Rob Fauber, President and Chief Executive Officer, Moody’s Corporation Second Quarter 2026 Highlights •MCO revenue of $2.2 billion increased 15% from the prior-year period, and 16% on an organic constant currency2 basis.

Q2 2026 Earnings Release: Headline results (revenue, margins, EPS) · Filed 22/07/2026

Below is a reconciliation of the Company’s net cash flows from operating activities to Free Cash Flow: Nine Months Ended September 30, Amounts in millions 2026 2025 Net cash provided by operating activities $ 2,471 $ 2,043 Capital additions (271) (245) Free Cash Flow $ 2,200 $ 1,798 Net cash (used in) provided by investing activities $ (130) $ 44 Net cash used in financing activities $ (3,190) $ (2,454) The increase in both operating cash flow and Free Cash Flow1 was primarily driven by higher operating income in both segments.

Q3 2026 Earnings Release: Free Cash Flow reconciliation/results · Filed 21/10/2026

CAPITAL RETURN •Moody’s returned approximately $3.1 billion to shareholders year-to-date, consisting of approximately $2.6 billion in share repurchases and $543 million in dividends.

Q3 2026 Earnings Release: Capital return (repurchases/dividends) · Filed 21/10/2026

–pricing pressure from competitors and/or customers;

Q2 2026 10-Q: Risk factors—pricing pressure · Filed 23/07/2026

–the level of success of new product development and global expansion;

Q2 2026 10-Q: Risk factors—competition and regulation (EU) · Filed 23/07/2026

and worldwide and on Moody’s own operations and personnel; other matters that could affect the volume of debt and other securities issued in domestic and/or global capital markets, including regulation, increased utilization of technologies that have the potential to intensify competition and accelerate disruption and disintermediation in the financial services industry, as well as the number of issuances of securities without ratings or securities which are rated or evaluated by non-traditional parties; the level of merger and acquisition activity in the U.S.

Q3 2026 Earnings Release: Risks—technology/disintermediation/unrated issuance · Filed 21/10/2026

–provisions of EU regulations imposing additional procedural and substantive requirements on the pricing of services and the expansion of supervisory remit to include non-EU ratings used for regulatory purposes;

Q2 2026 10-Q: Risks—EU pricing and supervisory remit expansion · Filed 23/07/2026

–the impact of regulation as an NRSRO, the potential for new U.S., state and local legislation and regulations;

Q2 2026 10-Q: Risks—impact of regulation as an NRSRO · Filed 23/07/2026

Moody’s Corporation 2 2026 Proxy Statement CORPORATE GOVERNANCE HIGHLIGHTS Board Independence Nine of the ten Board nominees are independent

2026 Proxy: Corporate governance highlights—Board independence · Filed 04/03/2026

Fully independent Audit, Governance & Nominating, and Compensation & Human Resources Committees

2026 Proxy: Corporate governance highlights—Independent committees · Filed 04/03/2026

Robust stock ownership guidelines, with retention requirements, for directors and executive officers

2026 Proxy: Executive compensation governance—stock ownership guidelines · Filed 04/03/2026

Comprehensive clawback policy, applicable to all cash incentive and both time- and performance-based equity-based awards

2026 Proxy: Executive compensation governance—clawback policy · Filed 04/03/2026

•The current ownership level multiples are: (i) six times base salary for the CEO, (ii) three times base salary for the remaining NEOs, as well as all direct reports of the CEO who receive performance shares (other than his Chief of Staff, a position that historically has had a 1.5x multiple based on the nature of the role), and (iii) one time base salary for the remaining executives subject to the guidelines.

2026 Proxy: Executive stock ownership multiples · Filed 04/03/2026

The Company expects to recognize into revenue approximately 55% of this balance within one year, approximately 25% of this balance between one to two years and the remaining amount thereafter.

Q2 2026 10-Q: MA RPO timing (55% <1yr; 25% 1–2yrs) · Filed 23/07/2026

A rating from Moody’s enables issuers to create timely, go-to-market debt strategies with the ability to capture wider investor focus and provides investors with a comprehensive view of global debt markets through our credit ratings and research.

2024 10-K: Item 1—Business, MIS overview (issuer benefits) · Filed 14/02/2025

and abroad; the impact of MIS’s withdrawal of its credit ratings on countries or entities within countries and of Moody’s no longer conducting commercial operations in countries where political instability warrants such actions; concerns in the marketplace affecting our credibility or otherwise affecting market perceptions of the integrity or utility of independent credit agency ratings; the introduction or development of competing and/or emerging technologies and products; pricing pressure from competitors and/or customers; the level of success of new product development and global expansion; the impact of regulation as an NRSRO, the potential for new U.S., state and local legislation and regulations; the potential for increased competition and regulation in the jurisdictions in which we operate, including the EU; exposure to litigation related to our rating opinions, as well as any other litigation, government and regulatory proceedings, investigations and inquiries to which Moody’s may be subject from time to time; provisions in U.S.

Q3 2026 Earnings Release: Risks—credibility, competing tech/products, pricing pressure · Filed 21/10/2026

Publication history

Publication history
VersionUpdatedCompetitive advantage
1129/10/2026narrow
1029/10/2026narrow
927/10/2026narrow
824/10/2026narrow
723/10/2026narrow
622/10/2026narrow
519/10/2026narrow
418/10/2026narrow
318/10/2026narrow
218/10/2026narrow

Sources

Research methodology and limitations · What is an economic moat?