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International Paper Co

NYSE: IP · USD

International Paper Co (IP) Economic Moat Analysis25

Competitive advantages, dated evidence and erosion risks.

None economic moat

International Paper's disclosures establish a highly competitive packaging business without a demonstrated durable moat. Similar competing products, substitutes and realized difficulty recovering input costs constrain differentiation and pricing power. North American shipment gains, price realization and improved utilization demonstrate commercial and operational progress, but not structural cost leadership or customer lock-in. Historical pricing weakness, continuing EMEA losses and acquisition impairment temper those achievements.

Cost advantage

North American reliability initiatives and improved utilization provide current operational benefits. A durable cost advantage relative to competitors remains unproven; lowest-cost production is a management objective.

Durability
Benefits persisted into the second quarter of 2026, but the passages provide neither comparative unit costs nor evidence that competitors cannot replicate the improvements.
Competitors
Comparison not established
Erosion risks
Capital requirements, freight and fiber costs, maintenance spending and competitive pricing can absorb productivity gains. EMEA continues to report operating losses.
What would invalidate the thesis
The operational-improvement thesis would weaken if utilization gains reverse, recurring production costs rise despite completed investments, or shipment gains require price concessions. Reconsidering the no-moat verdict would require sustained comparative cost leadership and pricing or customer advantages through adverse demand conditions.
Evidence (4) · Counterevidence (5)

Changes since the previous analysis

  • Retains the previous no-moat verdict and distinction between North American commercial progress and structural competitive protection.
  • Adds historical realized pricing weakness and explicit cost-recovery limitations to qualify the previous description of positive pricing power.
  • Adds criterion-level management assessments supported by adopted incentive arrangements, actual payouts, governance disclosures and capital-allocation outcomes.

Evidence limitations

  • Assessment uses only the supplied passages. Source dates are filing dates, retaining dateKind=filed; the latest supplied filing is dated August 5, 2026.
  • Competition passages identify generic categories rather than named product-market rivals. Compensation comparators, acquisition counterparties and litigation parties do not establish current competitor coverage.
  • Operating achievements and their attributed causes are principally issuer disclosures. Comparative costs, customer switching expenses and durable pricing premiums are not established.
  • Shipment growth provides indirect evidence of customer demand and retention; customer-level renewal or retention rates are absent.
  • Contract disclosures identify consideration and discounts but do not establish repricing rights, escalation clauses or termination restrictions.
  • The proxy supplies compensation and governance evidence, but the supplied excerpts do not establish actual executive ownership levels or compliance with ownership requirements.
  • The planned separation and anticipated investment benefits remain prospective. Acquisition accounting lives for customer relationships do not demonstrate economic lock-in.

Financial indicators to test against the thesis

Calculated from annual filings. Missing data remains unavailable. Detailed financial charts remain in the other topics.

Financial indicators to test against the thesis
PeriodGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
202128.6%——8.0%
202228.4%——5.9%
202327.9%——3.7%
202428.2%——4.1%
202529.6%——-0.7%

Pricing power—

  • Pricing outcomes

    Higher legacy North American prices in 2025 and realization of pricing actions in 2026 are positive observed outcomes. Historical lower packaging prices and incomplete cost recovery make the record mixed; product mix also contributed to recent improvement.

  • Customer demand

    Three consecutive quarters of above-industry North American volume growth and subsequent daily shipment growth support customer demand and retention indirectly. The issuer attributes growth to winning and retaining business, but volumes also reflect customer acquisition; EMEA demand declined.

  • Margin resilience

    Recent pricing and mix benefits are offset by demonstrated freight pressure, reliability spending and EMEA losses. Expected delayed freight recovery is not completed recovery.

  • Pricing freedom

    Fixed consideration, volume rebates and discounts are disclosed, but repricing authority, contract duration and cost-escalation rights cannot be established.

Management44

  • Capital discipline

    Operating improvements offer some support for investment effectiveness, but 2025 capital expenditures of approximately $1.9 billion exceeded operating cash generation of $1.7 billion before $977 million of dividends. Acquisition share issuance, substantial EMEA impairment and continued losses weaken demonstrated capital discipline. Cash-flow figures include discontinued operations.

  • Incentive alignment

    Adopted relative-TSR awards, financial annual incentive metrics and actual below-target performance payouts demonstrate alignment mechanisms. Elimination of ROIC from long-term incentives reduces explicit capital-efficiency accountability; actual executive ownership is not established.

  • Execution

    Above-industry North American volume growth, higher utilization and realized pricing support execution through operating evidence. Continuing EMEA losses and impairment show uneven enterprise outcomes; planned separation benefits are not counted as achievements.

  • Governance

    Shareholder rights, independent non-employee directors and an auditor finding of effective internal control support governance. The historical competition-law fine is realized adverse evidence, although its remaining liability was cleared; customer damages claims remain unresolved rather than proven additional misconduct.

Sources and methodology

Current publication · Updated 18/10/2026 · Version 4

AI interpretation based on checked source excerpts. Issuer assertions and evidence limitations remain explicit.

Policy quality-scores-2: six equally weighted categories. The overall score requires full coverage. Missing inputs are not zero. Qualitative grades are sourced interpretations, not probabilities. 4/6 · 18/10/2026

Moat25

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

structural advantage · 1/4 · Utilization and shipment improvements demonstrate operating progress, while similar competing products and a fragmented, competitive market leave structural cost or differentiation advantages unproven.

durability · 1/4 · Recent gains lack demonstrated protection through a full cycle. Historical packaging price weakness and inability to recover some input costs show fragile economic protection.

customer dependency · 1/4 · Customer wins and shipment growth indicate commercial relevance, but similar alternative products and substitutes constrain dependency. Switching friction is not demonstrated.

erosion resilience · 1/4 · North American improvements coexist with realized freight-cost pressure, persistent EMEA losses and substantial impairment. These outcomes show limited protection against erosion.

Pricing power—

Insufficient evidence for every rubric criterion; no category score is inferred.

realized pricing · 2/4 · Higher legacy North American prices in 2025 and realization of pricing actions in 2026 are positive observed outcomes. Historical lower packaging prices and incomplete cost recovery make the record mixed; product mix also contributed to recent improvement.

retention · 2/4 · Three consecutive quarters of above-industry North American volume growth and subsequent daily shipment growth support customer demand and retention indirectly. The issuer attributes growth to winning and retaining business, but volumes also reflect customer acquisition; EMEA demand declined.

margin resilience · 1/4 · Recent pricing and mix benefits are offset by demonstrated freight pressure, reliability spending and EMEA losses. Expected delayed freight recovery is not completed recovery.

contractual freedom · — · Fixed consideration, volume rebates and discounts are disclosed, but repricing authority, contract duration and cost-escalation rights cannot be established.

Predictability76

Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
50.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
13.98
Positive FCF years (%)
80.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
2.88

Financial strength11

Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

debtFcfGrade
0.00
netDebtEbitGrade
0.00
interestCoverageGrade
0.00
currentRatioGrade
42.35
Current ratio (x)
1.28

Capital allocation—

Missing required inputs: sbcRevenue. Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year pre-tax operating return (%)
-1.63
3-year average dilution (%)
13.72
cashConversionGrade
0.00

Management44

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

capital discipline · 1/4 · Operating improvements offer some support for investment effectiveness, but 2025 capital expenditures of approximately $1.9 billion exceeded operating cash generation of $1.7 billion before $977 million of dividends. Acquisition share issuance, substantial EMEA impairment and continued losses weaken demonstrated capital discipline. Cash-flow figures include discontinued operations.

incentive alignment · 2/4 · Adopted relative-TSR awards, financial annual incentive metrics and actual below-target performance payouts demonstrate alignment mechanisms. Elimination of ROIC from long-term incentives reduces explicit capital-efficiency accountability; actual executive ownership is not established.

execution · 2/4 · Above-industry North American volume growth, higher utilization and realized pricing support execution through operating evidence. Continuing EMEA losses and impairment show uneven enterprise outcomes; planned separation benefits are not counted as achievements.

governance · 2/4 · Shareholder rights, independent non-employee directors and an auditor finding of effective internal control support governance. The historical competition-law fine is realized adverse evidence, although its remaining liability was cleared; customer damages claims remain unresolved rather than proven additional misconduct.

Evidence

COMPETITION AND COSTS The packaging sector is large and fragmented, and the areas into which we sell our principal products are very competitive.

Item 1, Competition and Costs · Filed 27/02/2026

Our products compete with similar products produced by other forest products companies.

Item 1, Competition and Costs · Filed 27/02/2026

We also compete, in some instances, with companies in other industries and against substitutes for wood-fiber products.

Item 1, Competition and Costs · Filed 27/02/2026

In addition, because our business operates in highly competitive industry segments, we have not always been able

Item 1A, historical inability to recover input costs · Filed 27/02/2026

Our mill system continued to improve with capacity utilization up approximately 5% versus 2025, reflecting the benefits of reliability initiatives, operational discipline, and ongoing investments.

MD&A, North American mill capacity utilization · Filed 05/08/2026

First quarter marked the third consecutive quarter in which our North America sales volumes outpaced industry growth.

MD&A, North American sales volumes relative to industry growth · Filed 05/05/2026

Our box shipments increased approximately 1.7% on a daily basis compared with the prior year period, reflecting continued success in winning and retaining customer business.

MD&A, daily box shipments and customer business · Filed 05/08/2026

lowest-cost producer, and the most reliable and innovative sustainable packaging solutions provider to our

Item 1A, lowest-cost producer objective · Filed 27/02/2026

Three Months Ended June 30, 2026 In millions PS NA PS EMEA Total Net sales from external customers $ 3,670 $ 2,286 $ 5,956 Intersegment sales 18 1 19 3,688 2,287 5,975 Other external sales 48 Elimination of intersegment sales (19) Total Net Sales 6,004 Less: Cost of products sold 2,608 1,687 Selling and administrative expenses 334 171 Depreciation and amortization 226 262 Distribution expenses 285 237 Other segment items (a) 31 10 Business Segment Operating Profit (Loss) 204 (80) 124 Interest Expense, net 87 Adjustment for less than wholly owned subsidiaries (b) — Corporate expenses, net 25 Net special items (i) 54 Non-operating pension (income) expense (16) Earnings (loss) from continuing operations before income taxes and equity earnings (loss) $ (26) (i)Includes a charge of $43 million for costs associated with the strategic separation of our PS EMEA packaging business, a benefit of $13 million related to the closure of our Riceboro, Georgia containerboard mill, a gain of $11 million related to the completed sale of our box plant in Chile, a charge of $5 million for transaction costs for the NORPAC acquisition, a charge of $22 million for restructuring charges related to resource and asset realignment and charges of $8 million for other items.

Note 20, second-quarter 2026 segment results · Filed 05/08/2026

2025: In millions Packaging Solutions North America Packaging Solutions EMEA Total Net sales from external customers $14,987 $8,450 $23,437 Intersegment sales 188 1 189 15,175 8,451 23,626 Other external sales 197 Elimination of intersegment sales (189) Total net sales 23,634 Less: Cost of products sold 10,338 6,225 Selling and administrative expenses 1,293 536 Depreciation and amortization 1,724 1,020 Distribution expenses 1,125 873 Other segment items (a) 123 33 Business Segment Operating Profit (Losses) 572 (236) 336 Interest Expense, net 372 Adjustment for less than wholly owned subsidiaries (b) (2) Corporate expenses, net 109 Net special items (i) 3,237 Non-operating pension (income) expense (12) Earnings (loss) from continuing operations before income taxes and equity earnings (losses) $(3,368) (i) Includes a charge of $2.47 billion for the impairment of goodwill related to our PS EMEA business, $237 million for transaction and other costs related to the DS Smith acquisition, a charge of $84 million for severance and other costs related to the closure of our Red River containerboard mill, a net gain of $46 million related to the sale of EMEA plants, a net gain of $94 million related to the sale of fixed assets primarily associated with permanently closed mills, a charge of $125 million for costs related to the closure of our Savannah containerboard mill, a charge of $96 million for costs related to the closure of our Riceboro containerboard mill, charges of $321 million for restructuring charges related to resource and asset realignment and a net charge of $47 million for other items.

Note 21, 2025 segment results and EMEA goodwill impairment · Filed 27/02/2026

Margins improved due to faster realization of previously announced pricing actions and a more favorable product mix associated with lower export sales.

MD&A, realization of pricing actions and product mix · Filed 05/08/2026

prices, partially offset by lower volumes reflecting the impact of our box go-to-market strategy and mill strategic

MD&A, legacy North American prices and volumes in 2025 · Filed 27/02/2026

•Industrial Packaging’s operating profit of $1.3 billion was $476 million lower than in 2022 as the benefits of lower input costs and maintenance outage costs were more than offset by lower average sales price and an unfavorable mix, lower sales volumes and higher operating costs.

MD&A, 2023 Industrial Packaging operating-profit drivers · Filed 16/02/2024

Higher diesel prices are pressuring transportation and logistics costs throughout the supply chain, which adversely affects cost of goods sold and margins.

MD&A, realized transportation cost and margin pressure · Filed 05/05/2026

While the Company expects to recover higher freight costs through pricing actions, such recovery typically occurs with a time lag and does not provide immediate offset in the near term.

MD&A, expected freight-cost recovery and pricing lag · Filed 05/05/2026

The Company’s revenue is primarily derived from fixed consideration; however, we do have contract terms that give

Note 1, fixed consideration and variable contract terms · Filed 27/02/2026

rise to variable consideration, primarily volume rebates, early payment discounts and other customer refunds.

Note 1, rebates, discounts and customer refunds · Filed 27/02/2026

Capital expenditures in 2025 were approximately $1.9 billion and are expected to be approximately $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion in 2026.

Item 1, actual 2025 capital expenditures · Filed 27/02/2026

Cash provided by operations, including discontinued operations, totaled $1.7 billion in both 2025 and 2024.

MD&A, cash provided by operations · Filed 27/02/2026

The Company paid cash dividends totaling $977 million during 2025.

MD&A, 2025 cash dividends · Filed 27/02/2026

Upon closing, IP issued 0.1285 shares for each DS Smith share, resulting in the issuance of 178,126,631 new shares of IP common stock ("New Company Common Stock").

Note 3, shares issued for DS Smith acquisition · Filed 05/08/2026

Effective January 1, 2025, performance stock unit awards granted pursuant to the 2024 LTICP use 100% relative total shareholder return ("TSR") as the sole performance metric.

Note 19, adopted relative-TSR performance metric · Filed 05/08/2026

Element IP Incentive Plan / Program 2025 Performance Metrics for our NEOs Metric Weight Short-Term Incentive Plan Annual Incentive Plan (AIP) •Adjusted EBITDA(1) 50% •Revenue 30% •Cash Conversion Cycle 20% Long-Term Incentive Plan Performance Stock Units (PSUs) •3-Year Relative TSR 100% (1)See page 68 for non-GAAP financial measure definitions and Appendix A for a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

CD&A, annual and long-term incentive metrics · Filed 27/03/2026

Hamic’s AIP payment was awarded at 87.9% of target, based solely on the Company’s performance achievement.

CD&A, actual annual incentive payout below target · Filed 27/03/2026

2023-2025 LTIP PSU Payout 43,225 shares, including reinvested dividends (valued at $2,013,422, including a fractional share) The PSU portion of the LTIP was paid based on 73.81% performance achievement as described in Section 4.

CD&A, actual performance-share payout · Filed 27/03/2026

Long-Term Incentives Shareowners inquired about the transition to 100% PSUs with a single performance metric of relative TSR and the elimination of ROIC as a metric.

CD&A, elimination of ROIC from long-term incentive metrics · Filed 27/03/2026

Annual elections and majority voting for directors, with a director resignation policy Shareowner right to call special meetings Shareowner right to act by written consent Shareowner right to proxy access Robust independent Lead Director role Strong stock ownership and retention requirements Robust oversight of sustainability Active engagement with our shareowners Focus on board composition and refreshment, with director term-limit policy (effective March 2026) Strong anti-hedging and anti-pledging stock trading provisions and Clawback Policy 14 \ International Paper 2026 Proxy Statement Proxy Summary / 2025 Executive Compensation Overview 2025 Executive Compensation Overview Our executive compensation program is designed around two guiding principles: pay for performance and pay at risk.

Proxy Summary, governance practices and shareholder rights · Filed 27/03/2026

Based on the Governance Committee’s review of our current directors, our Board has determined that all of our non-employee directors are independent.

Director Independence, board determination · Filed 27/03/2026

the Company maintained, in all material respects, effective internal control over financial reporting as of

Independent auditor report, effective internal control · Filed 27/02/2026

In August 2019, the ICA issued its decision and assessed IP Italy a fine of €29 million (approximately $31 million at the then-current exchange rates) for participation in the boxes coordination, which was recorded in the third quarter of 2019.

Note 14, Italian competition-law fine · Filed 05/08/2026

As of June 30, 2026, after giving effect to this development, the Company did not have any remaining liability related to IP Italy's fine.

Note 14, remaining liability for Italian fine · Filed 05/08/2026

IP Italy, DS Smith Italy, and other producers also have been named in lawsuits, and we have received other claims, from customers for damages associated with the alleged anticompetitive conduct.

Note 14, customer damages claims · Filed 05/08/2026

Sales volumes declined modestly, reflecting continued softness in market demand amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and subdued consumer sentiment.

MD&A, EMEA sales-volume decline · Filed 05/08/2026

These benefits were mostly offset by costs of the Riverdale paper machine conversion and other planned reliability spending.

MD&A, conversion and reliability spending offsetting benefits · Filed 05/08/2026

Publication history

Publication history
VersionUpdatedCompetitive advantage
418/10/2026none
318/10/2026none
218/10/2026none
118/10/2026Unavailable

Sources

Research methodology and limitations · What is an economic moat?