AI interpretation based on checked source excerpts. Issuer assertions and evidence limitations remain explicit.
Policy quality-scores-2: six equally weighted categories. The overall score requires full coverage. Missing inputs are not zero. Qualitative grades are sourced interpretations, not probabilities. 6/6 · 18/10/2026
Moat25
Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.
structural advantage · 1/4 · Infrastructure and regulatory support exist, but cost superiority is asserted rather than demonstrated, and readily available commodity alternatives constrain differentiation.
durability · 1/4 · Installed assets offer continuity, but no durable relative economic advantage is demonstrated. Duty challenges and actual input-driven idling expose fragility.
customer dependency · 1/4 · Customers need crop nutrients, but the supplied evidence indicates weak dependency on Mosaic specifically: commodity alternatives are readily available and affordability has reduced demand.
erosion resilience · 1/4 · Potash retained substantial gross margin, but input inflation exceeded price gains elsewhere and constrained production. These realized outcomes show weak overall protection from erosion.
Pricing power31
Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.
realized pricing · 2/4 · Phosphate realized prices increased in 2024–2025 and Brazilian prices rose in first-half 2026. However, potash prices fell when supply improved in 2024, and subsequent increases reflect market conditions rather than demonstrated company-specific control.
retention · 1/4 · Indirect operating evidence shows continuing demand, including approximately stable Brazilian volumes in 2025, followed by materially lower first-half 2026 volumes and affordability-driven demand weakness. Supply constraints also affected volumes, so customer attrition cannot be isolated.
margin resilience · 1/4 · Potash gross margin was comparatively resilient, but higher selling prices failed to absorb input inflation overall and Brazilian gross margin fell sharply. This assesses actual cost recovery rather than inferring a moat from margins.
contractual freedom · 1/4 · Mosaic establishes customer payment terms, but explicitly considers competitive conditions. Commodity alternatives and uncertain cost pass-through indicate constrained economic freedom; comprehensive price-setting clauses are not supplied.
Predictability58
Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.
- Nondeclining revenue years (%)
- 50.00
- Revenue growth volatility (pp)
- 32.27
- Positive FCF years (%)
- 80.00
- FCF margin volatility (pp)
- 6.37
Financial strength17
Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.
- debtFcfGrade
- 0.00
- netDebtEbitGrade
- 0.00
- interestCoverageGrade
- 21.83
- currentRatioGrade
- 45.20
- Net debt / operating income (x)
- 5.82
- Interest coverage (x)
- 3.40
- Current ratio (x)
- 1.32
Capital allocation63
Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.
- 3-year pre-tax operating return (%)
- 5.88
- 3-year average dilution (%)
- -3.41
- 3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
- 0.26
- cashConversionGrade
- 27.52
Management38
Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.
capital discipline · 1/4 · Operating cash generation declined materially through 2025 while investing outflows remained substantial. First-half 2026 capital expenditure and financing needs, major Brazilian asset charges and an additional Carlsbad impairment indicate weak demonstrated capital outcomes, although divestitures represent corrective action.
incentive alignment · 2/4 · Actual arrangements include multiyear equity vesting, an earnings gate for 2025 performance awards and hedging restrictions. Alignment is mixed because partial performance-unit vesting remains possible after a 20% TSR decline. Holdings and eventual award outcomes are not supplied.
execution · 1/4 · Operating evidence includes a potash recovery, but extended downtime, lost supply, later curtailments and costly Brazilian closures outweigh that achievement. External sulfur conditions contributed, so the assessment does not attribute all weakness to management.
governance · 2/4 · Disclosed practices include separate independent chair and CEO roles, annual board evaluations and management's effective-control conclusion. A one-year-late equity-award filing is a concrete compliance weakness. These disclosures support mixed governance evidence, not exceptional oversight effectiveness.
Evidence
We believe that our investments in sulfur logistical and melting assets continue to afford us a competitive advantage compared to other producers in cost and access to sulfur.
Business—sulfur logistics competitive-advantage assertion · Filed 27/02/2026
Canpotex has substantial expertise and logistical resources for the international distribution of 15 Table of Content potash, including strategically located export assets in Portland, Oregon, St.
Competition—Canpotex logistical resources · Filed 27/02/2026
We believe that our potash cost structure is competitive in the industry and should improve as we continue to complete our potash expansion projects.
Competition—potash cost assertion and prospective expansion benefits · Filed 27/02/2026
The segment also includes our distribution business in South America, which consists of sales offices, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses in Brazil and Paraguay.
Business segments—South American distribution infrastructure · Filed 05/08/2026
Most of our commodity products are readily available from a number of competitors, and price and other competition in the crop nutrient industry is intense.
Competitive risks—commodity availability and intense competition · Filed 27/02/2026
While average selling prices increased in the current year periods, compared to the prior year, the increases were more than offset by elevated input costs, particularly sulfur and ammonia, which pressured margins and limited the benefit of higher selling prices.
Operating overview—selling-price increases exceeded by input-cost increases · Filed 05/08/2026
This was primarily due to idling our Araxá and Fospar facilities in the first quarter of 2026 and lower production at our Uberaba facility due to limited sulfur availability in the current year period.
Mosaic Fertilizantes—idling and sulfur availability constraints · Filed 05/08/2026
15 Table of Contents THE MOSAIC COMPANY NOTES TO CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - (Continued) A reconciliation of our AROs is as follows: (in millions) June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025 AROs, beginning of period $ 2,601.9 $ 2,572.2 Liabilities incurred 9.9 22.7 Liabilities settled (108.0) (288.9) Accretion expense 66.7 129.7 Revisions in estimated cash flows 8.4 190.5 Foreign currency translation 0.8 37.8 Reclass to held for sale (64.6) (62.1) AROs, end of period 2,515.1 2,601.9 Less current portion 227.2 271.3 Non-current portion of AROs $ 2,287.9 $ 2,330.6 North America Gypstack Closure Costs A majority of our ARO relates to Gypstack Closure Costs in Florida and Louisiana.
Environmental obligations—asset retirement obligation reconciliation · Filed 05/08/2026
Department of Commerce (“DOC”) issued countervailing duty (“CVD”) orders on imports of phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia, in response to petitions filed by Mosaic.
Regulatory matters—existing countervailing duty orders · Filed 05/08/2026
CVD orders normally stay in place for at least five years, with possible extensions.
Regulatory matters—normal duration of countervailing duty orders · Filed 05/08/2026
Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (“CAFC”) seeking to overturn the orders.
Regulatory matters—challenges seeking to overturn orders · Filed 05/08/2026
Operating results were also unfavorably impacted by decreased sales volumes, driven by affordability challenges weakening global demand.
Phosphate results—affordability weakening demand and sales volumes · Filed 05/08/2026
F- 6 Phosphate Net Sales and Gross Margin The following table summarizes the Phosphate segment’s net sales, gross margin, sales volume, selling prices and raw material prices: Years Ended December 31, 2025-2024 2024-2023 (in millions, except price per tonne or unit) 2025 2024 2023 Change Percent Change Percent Net sales: North America $ 3,933.9 $ 3,772.9 $ 3,749.8 $ 161.0 4 % $ 23.1 1 % International 642.6 745.9 974.5 (103.3) (14) % (228.6) (23) % Total 4,576.5 4,518.8 4,724.3 57.7 1 % (205.5) (4) % Cost of goods sold 4,139.2 3,924.8 4,022.2 214.4 5 % (97.4) (2) % Gross margin $ 437.3 $ 594.0 $ 702.1 $ (156.7) (26) % $ (108.1) (15) Gross margin as a percentage of net sales 9.6 % 13.1 % 14.9 % Sales volumes(a) (in thousands of metric tonnes) DAP/MAP 2,935 3,133 3,625 (198) (6) % (492) (14) % Performance and Other(b) 3,010 3,304 3,366 (294) (9) % (62) (2) % Total finished product tonnes 5,945 6,437 6,991 (492) (8) % (554) (8) % Rock(c) 1,760 1,795 1,622 (35) (2) % 173 11 % Total Phosphate Segment Tonnes(a) 7,705 8,232 8,613 (527) (6) % (381) (4) % Realized prices ($/tonne) Average finished product selling price (destination)(d) $ 667 $ 589 $ 566 $ 78 13 % $ 23 4 % DAP selling price (fob mine) $ 670 $ 585 $ 573 $ 85 15 % $ 12 2 % Average cost per unit consumed in cost of goods sold: Ammonia (metric tonne) $ 468 $ 435 $ 426 $ 33 8 % $ 9 2 % Sulfur (long ton) $ 237 $ 132 $ 181 $ 105 80 % $ (49) (27) % Blended rock (metric tonne) $ 80 $ 85 $ 75 $ (5) (6) % $ 10 13 % Production volume (in thousands of metric tonnes) - North America 6,272 6,290 6,568 (18) — % (278) (4) % (a) Includes intersegment sales volumes.
Phosphate net sales and gross margin—2023–2025 prices, volumes and costs · Filed 27/02/2026
In our Potash segment, operating results for 2024 were unfavorably impacted by lower global average selling prices, resulting from improved global supply.
2024 Potash results—lower prices following improved global supply · Filed 27/02/2026
The average finished product selling price increased $91 per tonne, to $555 per tonne for the six months ended June 30, 2026, compared to $464 per tonne in the prior year period, primarily due to the global pricing environment mentioned in the Overview.
Mosaic Fertilizantes—first-half 2026 realized selling prices · Filed 05/08/2026
The Mosaic Fertilizantes segment’s sales volume remained materially unchanged at 9.0 million tonnes for the year ended December 31, 2025, compared to the prior year period.
Mosaic Fertilizantes—2025 sales volumes · Filed 27/02/2026
The Mosaic Fertilizantes segment’s sales volume decreased to 3.1 million tonnes for the six months ended June 30, 2026, from 4.1 million tonnes in the same period a year ago, due to factors discussed in the Overview.
Mosaic Fertilizantes—first-half 2026 sales volumes · Filed 05/08/2026
Gross margin for the Potash segment decreased to $207.3 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, from $209.4 million in the prior year period.
Potash—second-quarter 2026 gross margin comparison · Filed 05/08/2026
Gross margin for the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment decreased to $6.2 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, from $161.7 million in the same period of the previous year.
Mosaic Fertilizantes—second-quarter 2026 gross margin comparison · Filed 05/08/2026
To the extent prepayments are not collected from customers, payment terms are established based on the type of product, distributor capabilities and competitive market conditions, and do not exceed one year.
Revenue recognition—customer payment terms and competitive conditions · Filed 27/02/2026
Because most of our products are commodities, there can be no assurance that we will be able to pass through increased costs to our customers.
Raw-material risks—uncertain ability to pass through costs · Filed 05/08/2026
Summary of Cash Flows The following table represents a comparison of the net cash provided by operating activities, net cash used in investing activities and net cash used in financing activities for calendar years 2025, 2024 and 2023: F- 16 Years Ended December 31, (in millions) 2025-2024 2024-2023 Cash Flow 2025 2024 2023 Change Percent Change Percent Net cash provided by operating activities $ 824.8 $ 1,299.2 $ 2,407.2 $ (474.4) (37) % $ (1,108.0) (46) % Net cash used in investing activities (1,309.5) (1,261.0) (1,317.2) (48.5) (4) % 56.2 4 % Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities 452.0 (131.9) (1,480.5) 583.9 443 % 1,348.6 91 % Operating Activities In 2025, net cash flow from operating activities provided us with a significant source of liquidity.
Summary of cash flows—2023–2025 operating, investing and financing cash flows · Filed 27/02/2026
We had capital expenditures of $677.1 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, compared to $645.4 million in the prior year period.
Investing activities—first-half 2026 capital expenditures · Filed 05/08/2026
During the six months ended June 30, 2026, we received net proceeds of $442.8 million from long-term debt, $201.8 million under our inventory financing arrangement and 41 Table of Contents $60.3 million under other short-term debt arrangements.
Financing activities—first-half 2026 debt and inventory financing · Filed 05/08/2026
This decision resulted in an initial charge of approximately $442 million in the first quarter of 2026 and subsequent costs of approximately $40 million in the current quarter, primarily related to the impairment of the disposal group, write-off of other assets, termination of contracts no longer in use, idle facility costs and accelerated depreciation.
Business developments—Araxá and Patrocínio charges · Filed 05/08/2026
RSUs and TSR performance units vest with continued employment through the specified vesting and performance period, respectively, which is generally three years.
Executive compensation—RSU and performance-unit vesting periods · Filed 16/04/2026
For awards granted in 2025, TSR performance units will not be earned by NEOs if the Company does not achieve cumulative positive adjusted net earnings* over the three years completed within the performance period.
Executive compensation—earnings condition for awards granted in 2025 · Filed 16/04/2026
Conversely, if TSR has declined by 20%, then just 70% of the target number of units granted will vest.
Executive compensation—partial vesting despite negative TSR · Filed 16/04/2026
Anti-Hedging and Anti-Pledging Policy Our insider trading policy prohibits executive officers and non-employee directors from engaging in hedging or monetization transactions, such as zero cost collars and forward sales contracts which allow an individual to offset any decrease in the market value of Mosaic’s securities or limit such persons ability to profit from an increase in the market value of Mosaic’s securities.
Executive compensation—anti-hedging policy · Filed 16/04/2026
Current year operating results reflect lower sales volumes which were impacted by supply losses due to extended downtime as we focused on improving asset integrity, and lower demand in North America in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year period.
2025 operating overview—extended downtime and lost supply · Filed 27/02/2026
Sales volumes also benefitted due to our recovery from production challenges and supply chain delays experienced in the prior year.
2025 Potash results—recovery from prior production and supply-chain challenges · Filed 27/02/2026
Bodine serving as our CEO. Our Board believes that separating these positions: •allows our independent Board Chair to focus on governance oversight and advice to management; and •allows our CEO to devote his time and efforts to the management and operation of Mosaic, including the development and implementation of our business strategies.
Corporate governance—separate independent chair and CEO roles · Filed 16/04/2026
Mosaic 24 2026 proxy Table of Contents Evaluation of Board Performance In order to continue to evaluate and improve the effectiveness of the Board, under the guidance of the Corporate Governance and Nominating Committee, our directors annually evaluate the Board’s performance, including the performance of each Board committee.
Corporate governance—annual board and committee evaluations · Filed 16/04/2026
Based solely on our review of electronic filings with the SEC of such reports and written representations from our executive officers and directors that no Form 5 is required, we believe that all such reports were submitted on a timely basis during fiscal 2025 except for one Form 4 filing reporting an annual equity award for Mr.
Delinquent Section 16(a) reports—late annual equity-award filing · Filed 16/04/2026
Russell Flugel, which was filed one year late.
Delinquent Section 16(a) reports—identified officer and one-year delay · Filed 16/04/2026
Based on their evaluation, management concluded that the Company’s internal control over financial reporting was effective as of December 31, 2025.
Internal control report—management conclusion at December 31, 2025 · Filed 27/02/2026
Upon completion of the transaction, we received cash proceeds of approximately $2 million along with the deferred payment of $10 million and recognized an additional impairment loss of $6.2 million in the second quarter of 2026.
Business developments—completed Carlsbad sale and additional impairment · Filed 05/08/2026
