AI interpretation based on checked source excerpts. Issuer assertions and evidence limitations remain explicit.
Policy quality-scores-2: six equally weighted categories. The overall score requires full coverage. Missing inputs are not zero. Qualitative grades are sourced interpretations, not probabilities. 4/6 · 18/10/2026
Moat50
Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.
structural advantage · 3/4 · Five-year utilization approximately 10% above North American competitors, combined with an established distribution network, supports a demonstrated operational advantage. The issuer does not disclose comparative delivered costs.
durability · 2/4 · The comparative utilization record spans five years, but ongoing capacity additions and actual plant downtime qualify persistence. Low-carbon premium sales have insufficient history to establish another durable advantage.
customer dependency · 1/4 · CHS receives deliveries under a supply agreement, supporting an ongoing relationship, but purchases are at market prices. Commodity pricing and intense global competition provide little evidence of supplier-specific customer dependence.
erosion resilience · 2/4 · Higher comparative utilization and positive gross margins across 2023–2025 support some resilience. Historical selling-price declines, new capacity and current downtime show material exposure to erosion.
Pricing power44
Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.
realized pricing · 2/4 · Average selling prices rose from $313 to $372 per ton in 2025 and increased 33% year over year in first-half 2026. These are realized gains, but supply disruptions largely explain them; the historical 34% decline demonstrates reversibility. Initial low-carbon premium sales add limited evidence of differentiation.
retention · 2/4 · Similar aggregate annual volumes during 2023–2025 and actual CHS deliveries support repeat demand indirectly. They do not establish customer-level retention, exclusivity or switching friction; CHS purchase rights are an option rather than a disclosed minimum purchase obligation.
margin resilience · 2/4 · Consolidated gross margins remained positive during 2023–2025 and expanded in first-half 2026. This demonstrates operating resilience, but favorable commodity prices contributed substantially, and maintenance costs and downtime remain realized offsets.
contractual freedom · 1/4 · The disclosed CHS agreement prices purchases at market levels, while global competition strongly influences delivered prices. Premium low-carbon sales show some pricing flexibility, but broad contractual discretion or enforceable premium pricing is not demonstrated.
Predictability61
Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.
- Nondeclining revenue years (%)
- 50.00
- Revenue growth volatility (pp)
- 41.27
- Positive FCF years (%)
- 100.00
- FCF margin volatility (pp)
- 3.70
Financial strength—
Missing required inputs: netDebtEbitGrade. Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.
- debtFcfGrade
- 88.80
- interestCoverageGrade
- 100.00
- currentRatioGrade
- 100.00
- Debt / FCF (x)
- 1.78
- Interest coverage (x)
- 14.84
- Current ratio (x)
- 3.37
Capital allocation—
Missing required inputs: operatingReturn. Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.
- 3-year average dilution (%)
- -7.25
- 3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
- 0.60
- cashConversionGrade
- 100.00
Management63
Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.
capital discipline · 3/4 · 2025 operating cash flow of $2.75 billion exceeded $950 million of capital expenditures while CF completed substantial repurchases. Debt refinancing and subsequent covenant compliance support financing discipline. Buyback value creation and returns on unfinished low-carbon projects remain unproven.
incentive alignment · 2/4 · Actual grants and the 60% performance-unit/40% restricted-unit structure link compensation to equity and multi-year RONA with a TSR modifier. Exclusion of certain major-project assets from the RONA denominator weakens comprehensiveness. Management ownership is not established.
execution · 2/4 · The five-year utilization comparison, completed Donaldsonville project and initial premium sales demonstrate execution beyond financial margins alone. Idled Yazoo City operations and maintenance-related volume losses provide realized counterevidence; larger low-carbon projects remain unfinished.
governance · 3/4 · The disclosed independent compensation committee, separate independent board chair and existing double-trigger severance arrangements support strong governance mechanisms as of the proxy filing. Subsequent chair succession and the shareholder proposal's outcome are not established.
Evidence
Safety As of December 31, 2025, the company’s 12-month average recordable incident rate was 0.26 incidents per 200,000 work hours — an industry leading result Operational Excellence Long-term asset utilization over the last five years is approximately 10% higher than the average utilization rate of our North American competitors Efficiency SG&A costs as a percentage of sales remained among the lowest in both the chemicals and fertilizer industries in 2025 Return to Shareholders Returned $1.69 billion to shareholders in 2025 through $1.37 billion in share repurchases and $326 million in dividend payments Clean Energy Commitment We are taking significant steps to decarbonize our own production network and support a global hydrogen and clean fuel economy, through the production of low-carbon ammonia (1) EBITDA is defined as net earnings attributable to common stockholders plus interest expense (income) — net, income taxes and depreciation and amortization.
2025 Performance Highlights—five-year comparative utilization, safety and shareholder returns · Filed 17/03/2026
Our value chain consists of manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, an extensive storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enabling a global reach.
Business Overview and Corporate Strategy—manufacturing and distribution network · Filed 17/03/2026
Nitrogen Selling Prices Our nitrogen products are globally traded commodities with selling prices that fluctuate in response to global market conditions, changes in supply and demand, and other cost factors including domestic and local conditions.
Nitrogen Selling Prices—globally traded commodity pricing · Filed 06/08/2026
Intense global competition—reflected in import volumes and prices—strongly influences delivered prices for nitrogen fertilizers.
Nitrogen Selling Prices—intense global competition and delivered prices · Filed 06/08/2026
For example, in the two-year period ended December 31, 2017, additional production capacity came online, and the average selling price for our products declined 34%, from $314 per ton in 2015 to $207 per ton in 2017.
Capacity and selling-price risk—realized 2015–2017 price decline · Filed 25/02/2026
The increase in gross margin due to higher average selling prices was partially offset by lower sales volume, which decreased gross margin by $127 million, and higher costs associated with maintenance activity, including certain unabsorbed fixed costs as a result of plant downtime, including at our idled Yazoo City complex.
Second-quarter operating results—lower volumes, maintenance and idled Yazoo City complex · Filed 06/08/2026
Additional nitrogen production capacity has come online in the past 12 months and is expected to continue to do so globally over the next 12 months.
Capacity risk—recent and expected global capacity additions · Filed 25/02/2026
The average selling price for our products was $372 per ton in 2025 compared to $313 per ton in 2024.
2025 operating results—average selling prices · Filed 25/02/2026
In the six months ended June 30, 2026, the average selling price for our products was $471 per ton, or 33% higher compared to $354 per ton in the six months ended June 30, 2025.
Nitrogen Selling Prices—first-half 2026 realized selling prices · Filed 06/08/2026
Average selling prices for all of our major products were higher in the second quarter of 2026 than in the second quarter of 2025 due primarily to a tighter global nitrogen supply and demand balance that was further impacted by the conflict with Iran.
Nitrogen Selling Prices—supply-demand and conflict drivers of price increases · Filed 06/08/2026
• Saw the emergence of low-carbon ammonia demand as we delivered the first sales of low-carbon ammonia at a premium and advanced collaborations to develop low-carbon ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer supply chains in North America.
Clean Energy Growth Platform—first low-carbon ammonia sales at a premium · Filed 17/03/2026
Year ended December 31, 2025 2024 2023 CFN Blue Point Total CFN CFN (in millions) Noncontrolling interests: Balance as of January 1 $ 2,607 $ — $ 2,607 $ 2,656 $ 2,802 Issuance of noncontrolling interests in Blue Point Number One, LLC — 291 291 — — Earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests 341 2 343 259 313 Declaration of distributions payable (304) — (304) (308) (459) Balance as of December 31 $ 2,644 $ 293 $ 2,937 $ 2,607 $ 2,656 Distributions payable to noncontrolling interests: Balance as of January 1 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — Declaration of distributions payable 304 — 304 308 459 Distributions to noncontrolling interests (304) — (304) (308) (459) Balance as of December 31 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ — CHS also receives deliveries pursuant to a supply agreement under which CHS has the right to purchase annually from CFN up to approximately 1.1 million tons of granular urea and 580,000 tons of UAN at market prices.
Noncontrolling interests—CHS deliveries and annual purchase rights at market prices · Filed 25/02/2026
2025 2024 2023 Sales Volume (tons) Net Sales Sales Volume (tons) Net Sales Sales Volume (tons) Net Sales (tons in thousands; dollars in millions) Ammonia 4,597 $ 2,176 4,085 $ 1,736 3,546 $ 1,679 Granular Urea 4,109 1,781 4,522 1,600 4,570 1,823 UAN 6,947 2,161 6,771 1,678 7,237 2,068 AN 1,327 421 1,464 419 1,571 497 Other(1) 2,077 545 2,101 503 2,206 564 Total 19,057 $ 7,084 18,943 $ 5,936 19,130 $ 6,631 _______________________________________________________________________________ (1)Other segment products primarily include DEF, urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia.
Operating results—2023–2025 product sales volumes and net sales · Filed 25/02/2026
The following table presents summary operating results by business segment: Ammonia Granular Urea(1) UAN(1) AN(1) Other(1) Consolidated (in millions) Year ended December 31, 2025 Net sales $ 2,176 $ 1,781 $ 2,161 $ 421 $ 545 $ 7,084 Cost of sales 1,494 944 1,240 342 340 4,360 Gross margin $ 682 $ 837 $ 921 $ 79 $ 205 $ 2,724 Gross margin percentage 31.3 % 47.0 % 42.6 % 18.8 % 37.6 % 38.5 % Year ended December 31, 2024 Net sales $ 1,736 $ 1,600 $ 1,678 $ 419 $ 503 $ 5,936 Cost of sales 1,243 926 1,069 340 302 3,880 Gross margin $ 493 $ 674 $ 609 $ 79 $ 201 $ 2,056 Gross margin percentage 28.4 % 42.1 % 36.3 % 18.9 % 40.0 % 34.6 % Year ended December 31, 2023 Net sales $ 1,679 $ 1,823 $ 2,068 $ 497 $ 564 $ 6,631 Cost of sales 1,138 1,010 1,251 359 328 4,086 Gross margin $ 541 $ 813 $ 817 $ 138 $ 236 $ 2,545 Gross margin percentage 32.2 % 44.6 % 39.5 % 27.8 % 41.8 % 38.4 % _______________________________________________________________________________ (1)The cost of ammonia and other products that are upgraded in the production of Granular Urea, UAN, AN and Other products is transferred at cost into the results of those products.
Operating Results by Business Segment—2023–2025 gross margins · Filed 25/02/2026
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS. CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (Unaudited) Three months ended June 30, Six months ended June 30, 2026 2025 2026 2025 (in millions, except per share amounts) Net sales $ 2,222 $ 1,890 $ 4,208 $ 3,553 Cost of sales 1,077 1,135 2,317 2,226 Gross margin 1,145 755 1,891 1,327 Selling, general and administrative expenses 89 101 192 185 U.K.
Unaudited Consolidated Statements of Operations—first-half 2026 sales and gross margin · Filed 06/08/2026
Distributions to Noncontrolling Interests in CFN The CFN Board of Managers approved semi-annual distribution payments for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, in accordance with CFN’s limited liability company agreement, as follows: Approved and paid Distribution Period Distribution Amount (in millions) First quarter of 2026 Six months ended December 31, 2025 $ 201 Third quarter of 2025 Six months ended June 30, 2025 175 First quarter of 2025 Six months ended December 31, 2024 129 Third quarter of 2024 Six months ended June 30, 2024 164 First quarter of 2024 Six months ended December 31, 2023 144 Third quarter of 2023 Six months ended June 30, 2023 204 Cash Flows Net cash provided by operating activities in 2025 was $2.75 billion, an increase of $481 million compared to $2.27 billion in 2024.
Liquidity and Capital Resources—2025 operating cash flow · Filed 25/02/2026
During 2025, capital expenditures totaled $950 million compared to $518 million in 2024.
Liquidity and Capital Resources—2025 capital expenditures · Filed 25/02/2026
In 2025, we completed the 2022 Share Repurchase Program with the repurchase of 13.2 million shares for $1.06 billion, and we repurchased 3.4 million shares under the 2025 Share Repurchase Program for $278 million.
Share Repurchase Programs—completed 2025 repurchases · Filed 25/02/2026
In 2025, we received proceeds of approximately $999 million, net of discounts, from the issuance of the 2035 Notes, which were used to fund the prepayment of the $750 million of 2026 Notes and the related make-whole payment of $4 million.
Liquidity and Capital Resources—debt issuance and refinancing · Filed 25/02/2026
As of June 30, 2026, we were in compliance with all applicable covenant requirements under our revolving credit agreement and senior notes, and unused borrowing capacity under our revolving credit agreement was $750 million.
Liquidity and Capital Resources—covenant compliance and available borrowing capacity · Filed 06/08/2026
• Long-term incentive awards granted to our NEOs in connection with setting target compensation are based on a specified dollar-denominated value, which since 2018 has been split among two different award types — 60% PRSUs and 40% RSUs.
Key Elements of NEO Compensation Program—long-term award mix · Filed 17/03/2026
• PRSUs awards are subject to three-year vesting criteria based on: ◦ Average return on net assets (RONA) over three one-year periods ◦ A modifier pursuant to which the number of shares earned based on RONA performance may be increased or decreased by up to 20% based on our three-year TSR performance against a threshold, target, and maximum level of performance 55 TABLE OF CONTENTS Compensation Metrics Tie to Business Strategy The compensation and management development committee selects performance metrics for our incentive compensation programs that align executive interests with those of our shareholders.
Key Elements of NEO Compensation Program—three-year RONA vesting and TSR modifier · Filed 17/03/2026
The “average operational assets” denominator of this metric is determined under the long-term incentive program essentially as the simple average of the beginning and year-end values for total assets as adjusted for certain items, including: (i) cash and cash equivalents; (ii) restricted cash; (iii) short-term investments; (iv) investments in marketable equity securities; (v) prepaid income taxes; (vi) total current liabilities; (vii) long-term deferred income taxes; (viii) other noncurrent liabilities; (ix) assets associated with major capital projects, strategic initiatives or joint ventures (as approved by the compensation and management development committee); (x) net assets associated with acquisitions and divestitures completed during the year; (xi) asset or liability changes associated with regulatory changes (e.g.
Compensation Metrics—adjustments to operational assets used for RONA · Filed 17/03/2026
65 TABLE OF CONTENTS Review and Approval of 2025 Long-Term Incentives The compensation and management development committee reviewed our long-term incentive program during 2024 and granted long-term stock-based incentive awards to our NEOs in January 2025.
Review and Approval of 2025 Long-Term Incentives—actual January 2025 grants · Filed 17/03/2026
In July 2025, we completed a significant decarbonization project at our Donaldsonville, Louisiana, complex to enable the production of low-carbon ammonia.
Business Overview—completed Donaldsonville decarbonization project · Filed 17/03/2026
10 TABLE OF CONTENTS COMPENSATION PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS Our executive compensation practices are overseen and administered by the compensation and management development committee, which is composed exclusively of independent directors.
Compensation Program Highlights—independent compensation committee · Filed 17/03/2026
LEADERSHIP OF THE BOARD Separate Independent Board Chair and Chief Executive Officer The Board has determined that the most effective leadership structure is to maintain an independent Board chair role separate from the chief executive officer.
Leadership of the Board—separate independent chair and CEO · Filed 17/03/2026
In this regard, the company’s severance agreements have the best practice “double-trigger” mechanism, providing that a severance payment is only due after a change of control transaction if the employee is subsequently terminated.
Response to shareholder proposal—existing double-trigger severance provisions · Filed 17/03/2026
The production of low-carbon ammonia depends to a large extent upon the ability of third parties to develop Class VI carbon sequestration wells and CO2 transportation pipelines, which currently do not exist at large scale and are subject to a permitting process and operational risks, which may result in delays, impact viability in some or all situations, or create long-term liabilities.
Clean energy strategy risks—third-party sequestration and transportation dependencies · Filed 25/02/2026
For example in October 2025, Louisiana’s government established new permitting criteria and policy guidance for the state’s Class VI underground injection control program for carbon sequestration, including emphasizing public engagement, economic development, and local community investment, and imposed an indefinite moratorium on all new applications for Class VI underground injection wells while the state works through pending applications.
Clean energy strategy risks—October 2025 Louisiana permitting restrictions · Filed 25/02/2026
