Cardinal Health

Drug distribution volume growth, aging demographics, and GLP‑1 and specialty uptake support steady unit demand. Revenue and cash generation are resilient, though working capital can swing materially quarter‑to‑quarter.

The OptumRx non‑renewal created a one‑time reset but management filled volume with new and existing customers and raised FY2026 guidance.

Non‑opioid litigation risk seems manageable, but opioid cash payments persist through 2038. Geographic and payer concentration tilt risk higher than ‘tollbooth’ peers like Visa, so we stop short of an ‘excellent’ predictability score.