Carrier Global

Carrier benefits from a large installed base and recurring aftermarket, but residential HVAC is cyclical and weather‑sensitive. 2025 guidance was trimmed late in the year as North American residential destocking persisted, while commercial HVAC and services remained strong.

European heat‑pump sales fell sharply in 2024 before expected normalization. Net, we view mid‑single digit organic growth as achievable over a cycle, with variance by end‑market. Toll‑like characteristics are emerging in data centers and service, yet overall predictability is only above average due to product cycles and policy dependencies.