Howmet Aerospace

Howmet’s underlying markets show secular growth but some cyclicality. Commercial aerospace is growing steadily: backlogs are at record levels and air travel trends are positive. The spares business provides recurring revenue (17% of sales in 2024 vs 11% in 2019), underpinning predictability.

Diversification into defense and industrial gas turbines adds stability. However, commercial aircraft builds and heavy-truck demand can fluctuate with the economy. While current growth (≈+12% in 2024) is encouraging, we award moderate predictability (≈60) due to potential cycle risks despite multi-year tailwinds.