McDonald's

Predictability is anchored by a predominantly franchised model that converts systemwide sales into rent and royalties. 2024 operating margin was ~45%, interest coverage ~7.8x, and the company reiterated mid‑to‑high‑40s operating margin expectations for 2025. While 2024 comps were pressured in certain regions (Middle East conflict, China softness), Q3 2025 returned to growth with global comparable sales +3.6% and systemwide sales up 8% for the quarter.

Digital and loyalty scale further stabilizes demand and improves marketing yield. Geographic diversity and a balanced segment mix mitigate country‑specific risk. Key unpredictability drivers are regulatory changes to wages, FX, and geopolitical shocks, yet the model has repeatedly demonstrated resilience.